Fighting ISIL on the Battlefield and Beyond

Posted on November 23, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

November 23, 2015

Following the terrorist attacks in Paris President Hollande declared that France was at war. President Obama called the attacks “an attack on the civilized world”. In a telegram to his French counterpart, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the attacks were “the latest testimonial to the barbaric essence of terrorism which throws down a challenge to human civilization”. Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “This attack on liberty targets not only Paris, it targets all of us and it has hit all of us, and that is why we will also all respond together.”

Despite such expressions of solidarity, the question “how to conduct this war?” remains because this is not just about just fighting the Islamic State (ISIL) in Iraq and Syria. It is also about finding ways and means to discredit its ideology; diminishing its appeal; narrowing its base; creating platforms if not alliances between the West, Russia and Moslem countries. This is a huge task, now further complicated by problems of homeland security and the Syrian refugees. Continue reading →

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A Roadmap to End the Syria Conflict

Posted on November 16, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

November 16, 2015

On September 28, hours after having delivered clashing remarks, Presidents Obama and Putin met on the sidelines of the 70th United Nations General Assembly. Three days later, on September 30, Russia started airstrikes in Syria. A month later, on October 30, China, Egypt, the EU, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United Nations, and the United States met in Vienna and issued a communiqué on the Syria conflict. The same day, the White House announced that President Obama had ordered fewer than fifty Special Operations troops into Syria to advise local forces fighting the Islamic State (ISIL). The next day, on October 31, Russian airliner Metrojet’s Airbus flying from Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg crashed over Sinai with 224 people on board. And finally on November 13, ISIL struck Paris claiming more than a hundred victims and leaving hundreds wounded.

The foregoing is a six-week summary of major developments related to the Syria conflict. Continue reading →

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Turkish Elections: A Stunning Defeat for the Opposition

Posted on November 5, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

November 5, 2015

When the voting started last Sunday in Turkey’s parliamentary elections, the electorate had two choices: the prospect of a coalition government plagued with internal disputes or a Justice and Development Party (JDP) government which hopefully had learnt its lesson. None of these had much appeal but there was no third option

Thus, 50% of the voters cast their votes for the second option giving the JDP an enviable parliamentary majority under Turkey’s election law: 317 seats out of 550. As the picture became clear, I thought about newsrooms and editors discussing headlines. For me, no matter how one was to word them, headline options also boiled down to saying either “a stunning victory for the JDP” or “a stunning defeat for the opposition”. For this spot I chose the latter. Continue reading →

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Vienna Meeting on Syria Highlights Country’s Secularism

Posted on November 2, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

November 2, 2015

Analysts have different opinions on the Vienna meeting of October 30, 2015. I believe that the communique issued constitutes a significant development not only for the Syria conflict but also for the entire Middle East because the participants have agreed as a first point that “Syria’s unity, independence, territorial integrity and secular character are fundamental.”

This is the first explicit reference to secularism in the context of the Syria conflict. It may even be the first ever reference to the principle in agreed international documents regarding conflicts in the Middle East. This in itself is an accomplishment. Continue reading →

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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Sending a Reminder

Posted on October 29, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

October 29, 2015

Palestinians remain deeply dissatisfied with the status quo and in the absence of any progress towards the two-state solution their discontent hits the surface usually in the form of some violence. And whenever there is violence, Israel says that she will not tolerate incitement, terrorism; Palestinian leadership calls for an end to subjugation and occupation; UN Secretary General urges calm; the Quartet issues a statement advising restraint; finally, the US Secretary of State rushes to the region to find a way to put the episode behind because such violence always puts Washington on the spot by virtue of her special relationship with Israel. By and large, the current picture fits the pattern with two differences. Continue reading →

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Turkish Elections: Continuing to Sail in Rough Seas

Posted on October 26, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

October 26, 2015

On June 7, Turkey held parliamentary elections. The result was a disappointment for the Justice and Development Party (JDP) because the electorate denied them a fourth consecutive term with parliamentary majority. The logical solution would have been a coalition government but in a polarized country that proved to be impossible. So we are going to the ballot box again this Sunday, November 1 and all we hear is endless promises. Continue reading →

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Russia’s Intervention in Syria (2)

Posted on October 26, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

October 22, 2015

Despite growing evidence of a build-up of military personnel and equipment around Latakia the scale of Russian military intervention in the Syrian conflict caught the West by surprise. Many analysts tend to see it as a new assertiveness on the part of Russia; President Putin flexing muscles, displaying power; Moscow striving to restore lost role in the Middle East; Russia trying to teach Americans a lesson. Some believe that the intervention aims at propping up the regime and if Putin had been eager for peace he would have exerted pressure on President Assad before the outbreak of full scale civil war. Others say this is an attempt to deflect attention from the Ukraine conflict and a mismanaged economy. A few want a robust reaction from the US and say that NATO being tested by Russia. Assad’s visit to Moscow will probably reinforce these assessments. There may be some truth in all that. But, a little more needs to be said to complete the picture. Continue reading →

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Chancellor Merkel’s Untimely Visit to Turkey

Posted on October 18, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

October 18, 2015

Struggling to cope with a massive influx of refugees, most of them crossing over to Greek islands from Turkey’s Aegean towns and cities, the EU was bound to seek some accommodation with Turkey. Needless to say this is “a massive influx” by European standards; massive enough to bring Chancellor Merkel to Istanbul.

In order to judge the timing of Chancellor Merkel’s trip to Istanbul one should remember the controversial visit PM Netanyahu paid to Washington in early March this year. Mr. Netanyahu’s visit constituted a breach of protocol because an invitation to a head of state or government can be extended by no other official than his or her counterpart, who is the head of state or government of that country. In this case, it was House Speaker John Boehner who had invited Mr. Netanyahu to visit Washington without properly consulting the White House. He was wrong to do that and the Israeli prime Minister was wrong to accept the invitation without seeking President Obama’s agreement. That was the “invitation aspect” of the problem, but there was more to be said. Continue reading →

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Downing of MH17 and the Dutch Safety Board Report

Posted on October 16, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

October 16, 2015

On October 13, 2015, the Dutch Safety Board published its report on the crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Hrabove, Ukraine. The report says that the crash of flight MH17 on July 17, 2014 was caused by the detonation of a 9N314M-type warhead launched from the eastern part of Ukraine using a Buk missile system. The 279 page report contains extensive technical detail on various aspects of the crash but it does not address questions of blame and liability. Yet, some see it as a vindication of their claims as to those responsible for the disaster. Others contest part, if not all, of its findings. There are accusations, rebuttals and counter-accusations. With the Ukraine conflict far from settled this is only to be expected. Continue reading →

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The Unhappy Trajectory of US-Russia Relations

Posted on October 12, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

October 12, 2015
Only hours after having delivered clashing remarks, Presidents Obama and Putin met on the sidelines of the 70th United Nations General Assembly. This was on September 27 and their first meeting in two years. Within a span of two weeks, however, relations appear to be further strained as result of Russian intervention in Syria. For someone who has put faith in the wisdom of US-Russia cooperation this is a disappointment. Continue reading →

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