What After the Rafah Offensive?

Posted on May 6, 2024 by Ali Tuygan

May 6, 2024

The UAE was the first Arab country to sign the Abraham Accords in 2020 normalizing relations with Israel. Later Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco followed suit. Washington then started encouraging Saudi Arabia to join the group. In July 2022,  Riyadh announced that it would open its airspace to all airlines, paving the way for more overflights to and from Israel. The normalization of Israel-Saudi Arabia relations appeared close. What led these countries to seek better relations with Israel was their desire to benefit from its advanced technological achievements in multiple fields and broaden the front against Iran and its Axis of Resistance. After all, Islamic solidarity is a myth, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation is a non-entity. Nonetheless, while signing the Accords they did not fail to pay lip service to the Palestinian cause. In reality, the question of Palestine was swept under the carpet for dynastic/national interest.

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The Incremental Cost of the Wars in Ukraine and Gaza

Posted on April 30, 2024 by Ali Tuygan

April 30, 2024

The world remains focused on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the Iran-Israel confrontation. The former defines relations between Russia and the West and unfortunately, there is no path yet for a negotiated solution. The latter two are more of a challenge for the US, with Russia and China watching on the sidelines. How the Gaza conflict would evolve is likely to impact Washington’s standing in the world. In brief, these are not great times for global powers to stand up together against other global threats such as ISIS, a radical group that has proved its outreach on numerous occasions.

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The Question of the Endgame in Ukraine

Posted on April 22, 2024 by Ali Tuygan

April 22, 2024

On February 26, 2024, President Macron, after hosting a meeting of 25 European leaders in Paris, said that there was “no consensus” on committing ground troops to the conflict in Ukraine but added, “Nothing should be excluded. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.” In early March, during a visit to the Czech Republic, Mr. Macron urged Ukraine’s allies not to be “cowards” in supporting its fight against the Russian invasion. However, Germany, the UK, Spain, Poland, and Czechia immediately ruled out any suggestion that they might commit ground troops to Ukraine. So did Washington.

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Controlled Escalation in the Middle East

Posted on April 15, 2024 by Ali Tuygan

April 15, 2024

Since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, I have held the view that Iran will continue to support its Middle East proxies but not to the brink of war with Israel. I still do.

Although Washington and its Western partners remained silent on the attack and ignored its international law dimension, Israel’s bombing of Iran’s diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1 marked an unprecedented escalation by Israel against Iran. Tehran’s response was to fire more than 300 drones and missiles on Israel. Of these, 99%  were intercepted overnight by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system. The US, UK, and France also helped to intercept the massive barrage of drones Iran fired. Thus, only several missiles reached Israeli territory, causing minor damage to an air base. There were no casualties.

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A New Dawn for Türkiye

Posted on April 3, 2024 by Ali Tuygan

April 3, 2024

I concluded a recent post with the following:

“At this time, the mood in the country is one of dejection… The principal battleground in the upcoming municipal elections would be Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir, Türkiye’s three major cities. But across the country, this will be much more than a municipal election. It will be a general election, thus a vote of confidence for the AKP’s 22-year rule… We Turks need to be aware of the extremely high foreign and security policy cost of our democratic decline and sterile domestic policies.” [i]

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Fighting Russia with Russian Money

Posted on March 24, 2024 by Ali Tuygan

March 24, 2024

Article 2 (4) of the Charter of the United Nations reads, “All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.”

Was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a violation of the Charter? Yes. Unfortunately, however, the Charter, a supreme international convention, has been violated multiple times in the past through invasions and military interventions not sanctioned by the UN, and coups carried out in numerous countries during the Cold War.

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An Unhappy Türkiye Heading to Municipal Elections

Posted on March 22, 2024 by Ali Tuygan

March 22, 2024

On Sunday, March 31st, Türkiye will hold municipal elections. People will not be going to the polls to express their preference for a new parliament, a new government, or a new leadership. Nonetheless, this election would allow them to express their judgment on our quasi-democracy and their expectations for the future, perhaps a desire for change in their lives.

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Thirteenth Anniversary of the Syrian Uprising

Posted on March 18, 2024 by Ali Tuygan

March 18, 2024

On March 15, the Governments of France, Germany, the UK, and the US issued a statement on the occasion of the 13th anniversary of the Syrian uprising.[i]

They said that on this day 13 years ago, “the Syrian people took to the streets in peaceful protest to demand their freedom and respect for human rights. The Assad regime met these protests with a ruthless campaign of oppression and atrocities that continues to this day. Since March 2011, the Syrian conflict has led to the deaths of more than 500,000 people and the forced displacement of more than half of the Syrian population. The coordinated efforts of the United Kingdom, United States of America, France, and Germany are focused on ending the suffering of the Syrian people.”

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Airdrops  and Maritime Corridor to Gaza

Posted on March 11, 2024 by Ali Tuygan

March 11, 2024

Despite optimistic remarks by President Biden, the ceasefire and hostage release talks in Cairo failed to make any progress. The release of all hostages was never in the cards, unfortunately, since they happen to be Hamas’s principal bargaining chip until the end of the war. But even the freeing of some, alongside a temporary ceasefire, would have been an achievement. Washington now says that the ball is now in Hamas’s court.

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A Critical Year

Posted on March 4, 2024 by Ali Tuygan

March 4, 2024

The anxiety reflected in the major headlines of the past week has confirmed that 2024 is going to be a critical year for the West.

It seems that a growing number of Americans are not happy with the looming Biden-Trump rematch. The latter’s threatening remarks to European allies about their inadequate defense spending have added to worries in European capitals on the future of their relations with Washington.

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