June 8, 2026

Today marks the 100^th day of the Israeli-US war with Iran, which President Trump had said would last “four to six weeks”. Despite the ceasefire, both sides remain engaged not only in exchange of fire but also in a battle of words. Nonetheless, the Iran-US talks are continuing, and the main challenge for the US negotiators is to reach a deal that can be presented to US public opinion as a better one than President Obama’s. In other words, they are after “JCPOA plus”. The difference is that the problem is no longer just Iran’s nuclear program. Linked to that are the questions of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for the world’s oil and fertilizer trade, and the war in Lebanon.

President Trump’s lashing out at Netanyahu is essentially theater to show that he is in command, not fighting Bibi’s war, and that he remains in charge. Yet, the war with Iran has provided the Israeli Prime Minister with a free hand in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.

At the end of May, Defense Minister Katz said that the Israeli government would implement a plan for large numbers of Palestinians to leave Gaza “at the right time and in the right manner”. The next day, Netanyahu said he gave orders to the Israeli army to seize control of 70% of the Gaza Strip. In the West Bank, settler violence against Palestinians continues unabated, with the encouragement of the government and security forces. In brief, the so-called “two-state solution” is dead and buried for good.

Immediately after the signing of the charter for President Trump’s controversial “Board of Peace”, his son-in-law, Kushner, had unveiled a “masterplan” for Gaza’s reconstruction, a “coastal tourism” zone. These days, there is no mention of that. Interestingly, last week, protests in Albania grew over a Jared Kushner-backed luxury resort deal. Conservation groups say work has begun in a protected coastal area, while Albania’s prime minister insists that the project will bring jobs and investment.[i]

During the past weeks, the only response to Israel’s military operations in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon was the inclusion of Israeli (and Russian) security forces for the first time in an annual UN report documenting sexual violence in conflicts, prompting Israel to cut its ties with the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres.

The war between Israel and Hezbollah, with the Lebanese government only a troubled observer, is an extension of the war with Iran. Despite ceasefires, nothing has changed. Israeli forces initially occupied the area south of the Litani River, which is about 30 kilometers from the border with Israel. Now they are also in the north of the river.

As could be expected, Iran has made the ceasefire in Lebanon a condition for any peace ‌deal with Washington because Hezbollah is one of its top proxies in the Middle East, and Tehran cannot afford to turn its back on them. Thus, while the Iranian and US negotiators focus on a broad peace deal, peace in Lebanon essentially remains in the hands of Tehran and Tel Aviv, as shown by today’s exchange of missile strikes, over which the government of Lebanon has little to say.

At the end of May, in a social media post, Trump said that it should be “mandatory” for countries, including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan, to join the Abraham Accords normalizing ties with Israel as part of any agreement to end the war with Iran. However, Egypt, Jordan, and Türkiye already recognize Israel. Was his message the result of a lack of knowledge or a signal for a plan linked to peace with Iran? It is the latter. Because the “Peacemaker King”, realizing that the Iran deal might fall short of expectations, would need additional achievements to present the deal as a major Middle East success story, by expanding the anti-Iran group of regional countries.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in his political memoir on diplomacy, “The Power of Negotiation”, published in 2025, says, “The Iranian negotiation style is generally known in the world as the ‘bazaar style,’ which means continuous and tireless bargaining.”

And he continues with the following: “The main principle of bargaining is practice: repetition, repetition, and repetition—combined with steadfastness and persistence. Insisting on positions and repeating demands is a necessity that must be done each time with different rhetoric and reasoning.”[ii] (emphasis added)

It took the P5+1 and Iran twenty months to negotiate the JCPOA, but that was in peacetime. Despite the addition of new issues to the agenda, the current talks will not take that long because the US and Iran are essentially renegotiating the same text on the nuclear issue, and both are under growing international pressure to end a war that has negative consequences not only for the region but also for the global economy. However, the war will not end with a comprehensive agreement for lasting peace as sought by Iran. It will be a “for now only deal”.

Moreover, opposition to the war in the US is also growing. Last week, the US House of Representatives approved a war powers resolution aimed at curbing President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Iran, even as Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the war is over. The House voted 215-208 last Wednesday in favor of the measure, with four Republicans joining the Democrats.

As for Türkiye, all I can say is that we are in the “darkest hour” of our 103-year-old Republic, with little prospect of sunrise. The governing AKP leadership, having full control of executive, legislative, and judiciary powers, is moving forward with its plan to divide/eliminate the main opposition party, CHP. It is delighted with Trump’s announcement that he will attend the NATO summit in Ankara because if he is to come, so would the rest, to make the most of the opportunity to ingratiate themselves with him.

Rubio has said the summit would be the “most important meeting” in the Alliance’s history. With the most distinguished, exceptional group of Western statesmen in NATO’s history, of course, it will be.

[i] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/04/protests-in-albania-grow-over-jared-kushner-backed-luxury-resort?CMP=share_btn_url

[ii] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/trump-iran-war-us-deal-b2988794.html