October 22, 2026
In mid-December 2021, Russia handed the West two draft documents, “Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization”[i] and “Treaty Between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees.”[ii]
The 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties defines a treaty as “an international agreement concluded between States in written form and governed by international law… “Agreement” is usually less formal and deals with a narrower range of subject-matter than “treaty”.
Thus, from the very beginning, Moscow signaled a difference in its approach to Europe and the US.
In broad terms, the draft Agreement with NATO and the draft Treaty with the US aimed at securing a return to the status quo ante before the signing of the “Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation” on May 27, 1997, which meant, in Moscow’s view, that NATO members have not lived up to their commitments under the Founding Act.[iii]
When asked why the issues of Ukraine’s “non-admission” to NATO and NATO’s activity in Eastern Europe, which have been on the agenda for many years, became so paramount at this juncture, Foreign Minister Lavrov said:
“It’s been an accumulation. I am referring to the period after the 1990s when our Western friends carelessly threw out all their promises not to expand NATO, not to move military infrastructure eastward, not to deploy substantial military forces on the territory of the new members. During the five waves of expansion, NATO has come right to our borders. When we formalized our relations with NATO in 1997, Poland was the only candidate for accession. Look at how the situation has changed since then…”
During their December 30, 2021, phone call, Presidents Biden and Putin agreed to a series of Strategic Stability Dialogue sessions, a NATO-Russia Council (NRC) meeting, and an OSCE meeting.
However, because Moscow’s far-reaching demands, designed to justify an invasion, left no room for agreement, these meetings ended in failure. Thus, on February 24, 2022, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.
On that very day, President Biden condemned the Russian attack and ordered more troops to Europe.[iv]
Unfortunately for Ukraine, that was then; this is now.
For the last five years, Russia and Ukraine have been fighting a devastating and costly war. Moreover, Russia and Europe are at war. However, Trump’s second term has dramatically changed Washington’s policy toward the conflict.
This began with a highly undiplomatic exchange before cameras on February 28, 2025, at the White House, involving Presidents Zelensky and Trump and Vice President Vance. The latter two berated the visiting leader, accusing Zelensky of being ungrateful for US support that has sustained Ukraine’s war effort. Coming just days after the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, this was a shock.[v]
On Tuesday, Trump referred to the Oval Office meeting as “our little chat”.
Since then, relations between Kyiv and Washington have continued to deteriorate, with leaders trading mutual accusations. The increasingly hostile allegations between the two sides even extended to delays in delivering Patriot missiles and sharing intelligence.
On October 9, 2026, President Trump announced that Russia had agreed to immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to US and global markets to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections. Last Friday, in an executive order, he said he was waiving many Congress-approved sanctions, restrictions, and duties on Russia. These included sanctions against senior Russian figures, including Putin, as well as against Russian financial institutions and Moscow’s so-called “shadow fleet” of vessels used to circumvent existing embargoes.
President Putin has now proposed a meeting with Presidents Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Shenzhen, China, next month. Although the war in Ukraine will be high on the agenda, the trilateral summit proposal aims more at enhancing Moscow’s standing as a global power. Neither Ukraine nor Europe would be there. In fact, Putin remains determined never to sit across the table from Zelensky.
On Tuesday, as Witkoff began talks in Oslo with Zelensky, EU High Representative Kallas sharply criticized the pressure on Ukraine to capitulate on terms exclusively favorable to Russia. She said American negotiators have been trying to push Ukraine into surrender for almost two years. Has anyone in Washington taken note of her comments? No. Trump and Putin are on stage, and Europe is only a spectator. This is what the resumption of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US means.
Interestingly, for Jared Kushner, who could not join Witkoff in Moscow talks, a videoconference link was arranged, allowing him to share his assessments and views on the issues under discussion, according to Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov.[vi]
Europe is currently preoccupied with serious problems. Underlying these are economic troubles, a high cost of living, dissatisfaction with ruling elites, and the weakening of the middle class. Yes, some European powers support Ukraine’s war effort and constantly talk about anti-Russia sanctions, but they would be more than happy to see the conflict come to an end, no matter what price Ukraine would have to pay. Do they regret not taking a different approach to the looming conflict to ensure history could have been written differently? Probably they do, but they will never admit it.
After many rounds of diplomatic talks, particularly over President Trump’s 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan, both Moscow and Washington already know what kind of “deal” is on the table. Kyiv must also have an understanding of the prospects for peace. The problem is that any peace deal, while not a great “victory” for Russia, will require major, hard-to-digest concessions from Ukraine.
As for Türkiye, the Mecca Defense Pact, a project likely originating in Washington, has finally been submitted to parliament for approval. It is unclear whether the text, which is not a treaty like “The North Atlantic Treaty,” was drafted before or after the August 7 signing ceremony in Riyadh. More importantly, it remains unclear what threat assessment prompted Ankara to join this agreement. Hopefully, the parliamentary debate will shed light on this. In the meantime, the US State Department has ordered some diplomats and the families of US government employees to leave Saudi Arabia.
[i] https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en&clear_cache=Y
[ii] https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en
[iii] https://diplomaticopinion.com/2022/01/03/russia-proposes-a-new-security-architecture-in-europe-and-beyond/
[iv] https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2945841/biden-condemns-russian-attack-on-ukraine-orders-more-troops-to-europe/
[v] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/28/trump-zelenskyy-meeting-transcript
