November 9, 2026
After election results started coming in, President Trump conceded that the Democrats did “a good job.” Others defined that “good job” as a “decisive rebuke,” “earthquake,” “blue tsunami,” and “a sweeping repudiation of Trump.”
Some of the reasons for Trump’s repudiation are personal, including his autocratic behavior, unpredictability, and his family’s business dealings. Beyond these, the rising cost of living and the war in Iran are major factors.
The cost of the war in Iran rose to $47.1 billion through October 16.[i] Yet, the US oil industry earned over $130 billion in profit during the Iran war. That was almost three times what businesses producing and refining oil in the United States made in the same period in 2025.[ii]
According to an Associated Press voter poll, voters’ top issues were the economy (39%), the state of democracy (32%), immigration (14%), healthcare (8%), foreign policy (4%), and crime (3%). Based on the results, it appears that voters put the economy and the war with Iran in the same basket.
The poll also contains a serious note of caution for Democrats. Despite Democrats’ victories, voters did not give the party a ringing endorsement. Many voters expressed frustration with both parties: On the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, taxes, and immigration, roughly 2 in 10 voters said “neither” party was better equipped to handle these issues.[iii]
The election results are good news for those upholding or aspiring to democracy and bad news for autocrats and the far right. European countries must be celebrating, though silently. For Russia and China, it might be a different story. On February 5, 2025, Prime Minister Netanyahu, “honored” to be the first foreign leader invited to the White House following Trump’s election for a second term, had said, “You are the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House.” He must be disappointed despite on-and-off disagreements with Trump.
So what now?
Major changes in relations with Europe, China and Russia appear unlikely. Trump will keep trying to bring the Ukraine war to an end to prove himself the peace-making king.
In a Foreign Affairs essay titled “The Dangers of a Lame-Duck Trump, How Far Will He Go to Make Peace—and War?” Professors Daniel W. Drezner and Elizabeth N. Saunders say:
“A boxed-in Trump, with no obvious constructive foreign policy outlet to channel his energy, may well lash out internationally. And Congress, even if controlled by Democrats, will have little power over his day-to-day management of foreign policy,” adding that the two places where Trump can inflict the most damage are Iran and Cuba.[iv]
Two weeks ago, The New York Times reported that the US and Israeli militaries developed specific plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections. However, reports also say Iran-US talks are continuing through intermediaries. In the coming days, one will see where the war is heading.
The Foreign Affairs essay also says that Trump could attempt to force regime change in Cuba. He has imposed a full-blown embargo on the island for most of 2026 to weaken its defenses. Cut off from its Venezuelan lifeline and without electricity for all but a few hours a day, the economic hardships in Cuba have dramatically worsened in recent months. Ousting Cuba’s government is a personal priority for Marco Rubio and an assertion of US primacy in the Western Hemisphere.
However, if the embargo escalates into an intervention, it will give Beijing a unique opportunity to take a similar step in its “near abroad,” especially since most Americans oppose new wars.
President Trump acknowledged last Tuesday that the war with Iran was “partially” to blame for the GOP’s resounding midterm election losses. But he also told The Wall Street Journal he didn’t regret the conflict and added he “would have done it again.” And soon after, Vice President Vance said, “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.”
In brief, of the two likely contenders for the 2028 presidential nomination, Vance is preoccupied with Iran and Rubio with Venezuela and Cuba. And, as I said in a recent post, in just a little over a year, Americans will likely see some change in their devotion to their leader. Despite rising criticism of Secretary of War Hegseth, Trump has said that he has no plans to change up his Cabinet. It seems that he only links this criticism to the Iran war and still does not understand the multiple reasons, among them his arrogance, for the targeting of Hegseth not only by Democrats but also by Republicans.
As for Türkiye, over the last two years, Trump has been more than generous in his praise for President Erdoğan. However, progress has stalled on critical issues like the F-35s. With Democrats controlling Congress, this is now next to mission impossible.
In the past, Türkiye-US relations faced more challenges under Democratic administrations than Republican ones. The remarkable exception was President Obama, who, in April 2009, arrived in Turkey after attending a G20 summit in London, a NATO summit in Strasbourg and an EU summit in Prague. In other words, this was his first bilateral visit abroad.
The following paragraph from the speech he delivered before the Turkish Grand National Assembly reflected the purpose of the visit:
“This morning I had the great privilege of visiting the tomb of your extraordinary founder of your republic. And I was deeply impressed by this beautiful memorial to a man who did so much to shape the course of history. But it is also clear that the greatest monument to Atatürk’s life is not something that can be cast in stone and marble. His greatest legacy is Turkey’s strong, vibrant, secular democracy, and that is the work this assembly carries on today…”
The gist of his message was the following: Turkey, with its secular democracy, has set an example for the Islamic world. Turkey should continue this path, and others should follow.
Soon after, unfortunately, the AKP government left the democratic path. Today’s Türkiye, under its unique “presidential system”, is in democratic decline. The fundamental principles of democracy, such as the separation of powers, independence of the judiciary, parliamentary oversight, accountability, and transparency, are no longer with us.
In foreign policy, we have no friends. The government’s Islamist approach, its support for the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, has put distance between Ankara and Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia despite the signing of the Mecca Pact. We have no dialogue with Europe. Despite yesterday’s statements by Presidents Erdoğan and Aliyev, during the former’s visit there, about the lasting nature of the bonds between the peoples of Türkiye and Azerbaijan, Baku’s perception of the AKP’s political philosophy will not change.
The US inflation rate is 3.7% for the 12 months ending in September 2026. Yet Americans are unhappy. Türkiye’s annual inflation rate “officially” runs at 30%. On top of our economic challenges, we are now preoccupied with a stock market scandal.
Tomorrow, November 10, marks the 88th anniversary of Atatürk’s passing. He was the Turks’ greatest leader ever. We remain eternally grateful to him for leading our War of Independence, reasserting our sovereignty, and for his reforms, which set us on an enlightened path.
[i] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/27/us/politics/iran-war-cost-rises.html
[ii] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/30/business/energy-environment/exxon-chevron-oil-profits-iran-war.html?smid=em-share
[iii] https://apnews.com/article/trump-2026-midterms-voters-young-voters-hispanic-voters-democrats-congress-ba1689d8402415d26ad32f4fa80ab2f9
[iv] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/dangers-lame-duck-trump
