June 2, 2026

The Iran-US “Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU) was signed last Thursday by Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian in Paris and Tehran, respectively. Thus, the 60-day negotiation period started. The preceding days saw endless speculation about its contents. US Vice President Vance said the MoU is “a very general document,” with specifics to be worked out in further negotiations. Although not disclosed, the MoU may have understandings that go beyond those 14 paragraphs.

The MoU had already been signed digitally by Vice President Vance and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, who were scheduled to sign it formally in Geneva on Friday, highlighting a positive change in Iran-US relations. But Trump, who enjoys being at the center of the world’s attention, could not help but steal the show, and with the ceasefire violations in Lebanon, the Geneva meeting was postponed.

In recent days, Vice President J.D. Vance has emerged as the leading advocate for the deal with Iran, despite strong criticism from some Republican Senators. This has fueled speculation about Vance’s likely run for president in 2028. As expected, “If it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” Trump said of the MoU. “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD.” Nonetheless, with most Americans weary of foreign interventions, Vance’s advocacy of a deal with Tehran and his warnings to Israel may serve his long-term interests. He may also believe that his defense of the MOU would position him as a preferred interlocutor for the Iranians.

The G7 summit in Evian, France, preceded Trump’s signing of the MoU. The Leaders’ Statement on geopolitical issues focused on Ukraine and Iran.[i]

What the Statement said about Ukraine was the usual EU language. It said that the leaders stand united in their unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity; that they agree to increase the delivery of air defense capacities, additional systems and interceptors, and long-range capabilities. The leaders also committed to increasing pressure on the Russian war economy, strengthening sanctions, including those on the oil and gas sectors.

Yet, “We have nothing do with it,” Trump said. “We sell weapons to them. … The European Union pays us full price for weapons. … This has no impact on us other than we sell weapons. We’re thousands of miles away.”

Regardless, on Thursday, encouraged by renewed European commitment of support and the G7 summit, Ukraine launched its largest attack on Moscow since the start of the war.

President Macron has once again said that Europe must be at the negotiating table for Ukraine. As I have repeatedly said, this largely depends on Europe’s resuming its dialogue with Russia.

On Iran, the G7 leaders welcomed the announcement of a deal between the US and Iran, “secured under the strong leadership of President Trump”, with the support of mediating countries, and providing an historic opportunity to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. They expressed strong support for a robust and comprehensive diplomatic follow-on agreement to the MoU, “secured by President Trump that can bring peace and security for all in the region”.

What became clear at the G7 summit was that European leaders remain determined to play Trump’s tune, do their best to please him, and put up with him until the end of his second term.

The first day of the G7 summit, starting with a Trump-Macron handshake, hardly revealed any warmth between Trump and the others.[ii] Nonetheless, Europeans were determined to please him. Chancellor Friedrich Merz presented President Trump with a football jersey. “We’re on the same team,” Mr. Merz said of the president on social media, wishing him a belated happy 80^th birthday. Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Trump on the Iran-US MoU.  And President Macron invited him to dinner at Versailles, to celebrate the 250th anniversary of American independence.

Macron has called the summit “the Évian moment,” a turning point for Ukraine and Europe. Yet, all the cajoling hardly changed anything in transatlantic relations.

Considering what has transpired in the last four months, the Iran-US MoU, declaring “an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon”, is a positive development for the Middle East. Perhaps not in 60 days, but with the experience of the JCPoA, an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program appears possible. If that were to be achieved, the question, or rather the discussion, would then be whether the new deal is better than President Obama’s JCPoA.

In general, the MoU prioritizes Tehran’s expectations from a final agreement with Washington.[iii]

The MoU reopens the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, lifting blockades.

It states that Iran will ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels from the Strait of Hormuz, with no charge for 60 days. It also says that Iran will have a dialogue with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, “in discussion with other Persian Gulf states”. In other words, the door to “payments for some services”, if not tolls, in the future remains open.

The US undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

As part of a final agreement, the US will terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Until the termination of sanctions, the US Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services.

The US also undertakes to make fully available to Tehran the frozen or restricted funds and assets of Iran upon the implementation of the MoU.

“It’s not our money, it’s their money, and we froze it at a certain point in time,” Trump said of the frozen Iranian assets. “I guess we’re going to have to give it back.” It remains to be seen whether Washington will release some of Iran’s frozen assets as incentives to Tehran during the following phases of the negotiations. Yesterday, Foreign Minister Araghchi said some of Iran’s assets frozen abroad had been released, in a post following the conclusion of talks in Switzerland.

To formally end US attempts at regime change in Iran, the two sides undertake to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

As for Iran’s nuclear program, Iran, as before, reaffirms that it shall not develop nuclear weapons. The two sides agree to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material under the IAEA’s supervision.

Considering Israel’s negative reaction to the MoU, the confrontation in Lebanon is likely to remain the major obstacle to progress in Iran-US negotiations. The question is whether and to what extent Washington and Tehran would be able to convince their partners, Israel and Hezbollah, to act in accordance with the letter and spirit of the MoU.

Nonetheless, yesterday’s talks in Switzerland, led by Vice President Vance and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, briefly interrupted by Trump’s renewed threats, appear to have put the bumpy negotiation process back on track.

The Joint Statement issued by Qatar and Pakistan at the end of the talks in Switzerland states that the parties have agreed to establish a High-Level Committee to provide political oversight of the mediation.[iv]

The parties have also agreed to establish a de-confliction cell to end the fighting in Lebanon.

The Turkish government, envious of the role Islamabad and Qatar played in containing the Iran-US conflict, is seeking a similar role in helping open the door to peace in Ukraine and sees the NATO summit as an opportunity to reassert itself. Unfortunately, however, the government, with its ongoing war against the main opposition party and its mayors, while clamoring for regional peace, is miles away from realizing that Ankara’s role in international relations depends, more than anything else, on its return to the democratic path.

The 2026 NATO Summit will be held in Ankara on July 7 and 8.

Türkiye’s presidential government needs to remember that the North Atlantic Treaty starts with the following:

“The Parties to this Treaty reaffirm their faith in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and their desire to live in peace with all peoples and all governments. They are determined to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilisation of their peoples, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law…”

[i] https://www.elysee.fr/en/G7evian/2026/06/17/g7-leaders-statement-on-geopolitical-issues

[ii] https://www.facebook.com/reel/1568064848228019

[iii] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gy700j0eko

[iv] https://mofa.gov.qa/en/latest-articles/statements/joint-statement-by-the-state-of-qatar-and-the-islamic-republic-of-pakistan-regarding-the-conclusion-of-lake-lucerne-summit–first-high-level-committee-meeting-with-participation-of-the-united-states-of-america-and-the-islamic-republic-of-iran