April 3, 2024

I concluded a recent post with the following:

“At this time, the mood in the country is one of dejection… The principal battleground in the upcoming municipal elections would be Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir, Türkiye’s three major cities. But across the country, this will be much more than a municipal election. It will be a general election, thus a vote of confidence for the AKP’s 22-year rule… We Turks need to be aware of the extremely high foreign and security policy cost of our democratic decline and sterile domestic policies.” [i]

The main opposition, Republican People’s Party (CHP), this time without a coalition with other opposition parties, singlehandedly scored a huge victory in this “more than municipal election” not only in Ankara, İstanbul and İzmir but also in 12 other metropolitan cities and 21 provincial capitals. They won even in the district of Üsküdar in İstanbul where President Erdoğan’s home is. The number of CHP’s mayoral wins and the high voting percentages of its candidates show a clear fall in support for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Thus, on April 1, the country woke up to a new dawn, not to another April Fools Day.

Among the fundamental reasons underlying the outcome are the following:

• The majority expressed its opposition to rising authoritarianism and voted for democracy.
• AKP’s erroneous and volatile economic policies of the past decade put the Turkish economy in dire straits with galloping inflation.
• Turks are increasingly unhappy with hosting the largest number of refugees worldwide as a result of AKP’s disastrous foreign and security policy mistakes and open-door policy.
• It seems that the majority of the 1,3 million young voters who went to the polls for the first time voted for change, an enlightened Türkiye.
• Millions of retirees suffering from the economic downturn went to the polls in great numbers and voted for the opposition.
• Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu’s removal from the CHP’s head, with a long list of lost elections behind, has energized the party organization under Mr. Özel’s leadership. Many are now asking themselves if the result of last year’s presidential election could have been different had he not insisted on running.
• And it seems that President Erdogan’s and his entire cabinet’s active campaign for AKP candidates has backfired. Under Türkiye’s Constitution, before it was amended in 2017 by the AKP, ministers of the interior, justice, and transport were obliged to resign and be replaced by technocrats to ensure a free and fair election. Their no-holds-barred participation in this municipal campaign was just appalling.
• The 78,32 % participation in the election probably shows that a good number of AKP supporters, disappointed with the government’s economic policy,  preferred to stay at home or voted for the Islamist New Welfare Party.

The challenges for the future:

• How the AKP would react to this election loss is of importance. If they were to remain determined to continue with authoritarian rule, not only the party’s but also Türkiye’s future would once again come under darkening clouds. They would do a lot better by properly analyzing the reasons underlying their defeat and doing their level best to return to the democratic path.
• President Erdogan is likely to continue with the current economic program to fight inflation and provided that there is some improvement, he could call for an early election before 2028.
• The principal task for Türkiye’s opposition is to carry the momentum to the next general and presidential elections. Because only that would guarantee a return to Türkiye’s founding Republican principles, among them secularism, and to parliamentary democracy.
• The mayors of Ankara and İstanbul, Mr. Yavaş and Mr. İmamoğlu have won stunning victories, with more than expected margins. They and the new and energetic leader of the CHP, Mr. Özel, would be wise to remain in constant dialogue with each other to ensure that they and the party remain united, devoted to Atatürk’s legacy, its top priority being the restoration of Türkiye’s parliamentary democracy. Thus, they must carefully prepare the path for the next general and presidential elections in May 2028, perhaps an earlier one.
• Their personal dialogue, their camaraderie, and their continuing trust in one another are of fundamental importance for Türkiye’s future. Pursuing personal political objectives is understandable but only up to a point. In this connection, these three leaders must ensure that the CHP mayors fulfill expectations and vigorously fight corruption.
• The CHP On Sunday evening, Mr. Özel called for moderation in celebrating the election results, which he described as the best way of carrying a victory forward. These were words of wisdom.

All that remains now, for political leaders across the spectrum, is to put party program differences, narrow-minded political ambitions, and winner-take-all kind of approaches aside and do their very best to reunite a sharply divided, polarized Türkiye through the restoration of democracy. This is the dictate of reason and patriotism. Because, in a region characterized by conflict and autocracy, democracy is the only path to resolving Türkiye’s long-standing domestic political and economic problems and perhaps setting an example for the Middle East.

There is no doubt that the election result will help Türkiye’s global standing. But, this should not be the end of the story.

[i] https://diplomaticopinion.com/2024/03/22/an-unhappy-turkiye-heading-to-municipal-elections/