The Loss of Debaltseve

Posted on February 19, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

20 February 2015

The failure to declare an “immediate” cease-fire at the end of the last round of what one may call the “Minsk Process” was not a good sign. The fact that the “Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements” left a lot of detail to be filled in later was also an indication of difficulties encountered during the seventeen hour negotiation marathon of the four leaders.
The situation in Debaltseve could not have been a detail because of its strategic value as shown by the intensity of the fighting around it. Now, there will be conflicting interpretations of what was agreed or not agreed and why in Minsk and of course mutual accusations. These have already started. Continue reading →

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Minsk III

Posted on February 13, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

13 February 2015

At the end of meeting in the Belarusian capital, Presidents Putin, Poroshenko, Hollande and Chancellor Merkel issued the “Declaration of Minsk in Support of the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements”. They reiterated their belief that there is no alternative to a peaceful solution.In spite of the mounting death toll this good to hear.

The situation on the ground favors the rebels. This is never going to change because Russia is right there, the US far away and Europe in the middle, trying to avoid further and costly trouble. Continue reading →

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Iran at Crossroads

Posted on February 12, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

12 February 2015

Iran is a country with an impressive historical and cultural heritage. It has rich natural resources, a strategic location and a population of 76 million.

Following the ousting of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979, Iran’s principal concern was ensuring the survival of the regime and exporting the Revolution. Turkey was a particular target. This, however, did not close all doors to cooperation. Turkey maintained its political dialogue and economic links with Iran as a neighbor. Ankara followed a policy of “active neutrality” during the eight year Iraq-Iran war gaining the trust of both sides. So much so that, Turkey represented Iraqi diplomatic interests in Tehran and Iranian diplomatic interests in Baghdad. Continue reading →

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Western Response to Escalation in Ukraine

Posted on February 7, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

7 February 2015
A group of distinguished scholars and former practitioners from the Atlantic Council, the Brookings Institution, the Center for a New American Security, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs have recently published a report (*) which outlines the background to the crisis over Ukraine and offers specific recommendations for steps that Washington and NATO should take to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses and thereby enhance its ability to deter further Russian aggression.

The most important of the group’s recommendations is that the U.S. government should immediately change its policy from prohibiting lethal assistance to allowing provision of defensive military assistance, which may include lethal assistance. The report also argues that since bolstering Ukraine’s defenses should not be a U.S.-only responsibility, NATO members should also increase their military assistance to Ukraine, with a view to meeting the priority needs identified above. It is suggested in this connection that NATO allies who have former Soviet/Warsaw Pact equipment and weapons systems similar to or compatible with those now operated by the Ukrainian military should consider contributing those to Kiev’s defense capabilities. Continue reading →

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Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Middle East Fratricide

Posted on February 7, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

7 February 2015
According to OIC’s official website, the Organization and its Secretary General issued twelve statements of condemnation during the past month. Five of these were related to developments in non-OIC countries such as the terrorist attack on Charlie Hebdo and its publication of cartoons of Prophet Mohammad. The Organization condemned both. The remaining seven pertained to developments within the Organization’s own domain, namely Moslem countries. These were the murders committed by ISIS, terrorist attacks in the Sinai, Nigeria, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
The second set of statements, beyond their immediate purpose, also underlined, though indirectly, the biggest challenge facing the OIC: Putting an end to the sectarian strife raging in the Middle East.
Is this within terms of reference of the Organization? This is what its Charter says: Continue reading →

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Quo Vadis Turkey?

Posted on February 3, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

3 February 2015
Turkey’s traditional foreign policy, bitterly criticized by the present Government for having betrayed Turkey’s potential, stood on pillars. Our relations with the United States and the European Union constituted the first two. A third one was our relations with our neighbors and the region. Prominently among those was Russia. Since the world is in a constant process of transformation Turkey was searching for new pillars to add to the existing ones. Relations with China, India and other emerging powers offered new prospects. Continue reading →

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President Obama and the Middle East

Posted on January 31, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

1 February 2015
Five speeches delivered by President Obama are important to understanding his approach to the Middle East. These are:
• Remarks to the Turkish Parliament (6 April 2009),
• Remarks at the Cairo University where he addressed Moslem countries (4 June 2009),
• Statement on US strategy to defeat ISIL (10 September 2013),
• Address the United Nations General Assembly (24 September 2013) and,
• Remarks at the US Military Academy Commencement Ceremony (28 May 2014).

The President arrived in Turkey after attending a G20 summit in London, a NATO summit in Strasbourg and an EU summit in Prague. In other words, this was his first bilateral visit abroad.

The following paragraph from the speech he delivered before the Turkish Grand National Assembly reflected the purpose of the visit:
“This morning I had the great privilege of visiting the tomb of your extraordinary founder of your republic. And I was deeply impressed by this beautiful memorial to a man who did so much to shape the course of history. But it is also clear that the greatest monument to Atatürk’s life is not something that can be cast in stone and marble. His greatest legacy is Turkey’s strong, vibrant, secular democracy, and that is the work this assembly carries on today…” Continue reading →

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Breach of Protocol

Posted on January 30, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

30 January 2015

It would not be surprising that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to Washington should remain a cause for controversy up to and even beyond the Israeli elections scheduled for 17 March 2015.

As a former diplomat I wish to add my voice to those who think that this is a breach of established diplomatic practice, and in a serious way. Continue reading →

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Syriza’s Election Victory

Posted on January 28, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

28 January 2015
Over the last five years Greece has been on top of the EU’s economic crisis management agenda.
Looking further back, one may say that leaders’ personalities and their able political reasoning probably played a larger part than economic performance in securing Greece’s membership in the European Union and the Eurozone.
Constantine Karamanlis had maintained close relations with French and German leaders during the years of self-exile in Paris. Following the fall of the junta in 1974 he returned home to lead his people as a respected statesman. He was prime minister when Greece filed its application to join the EU on 12 July 1975. And, he was president when Greece joined on 1 January 1981. At the time New Democracy was in power, but Karamanlis played a major role in the fulfillment of Greece’s European dream. Continue reading →

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Breaking the Syrian Deadlock

Posted on January 26, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

26 January 2015
With ISIS controlling swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria, terrorist attacks in Paris, turmoil in Libya and Yemen, Boko Haram’s massacres in Nigeria, public discourse of the West on Syria has started to change. References to President Assad’s ouster are less frequently heard. There is continuing talk about train-and-equip programs for the moderate Syrian opposition but these do not reflect much conviction. As a matter of fact, during an interview on 8 August 2014, President Obama has told Thomas L. Friedman of the New York Times that,
“…the notion that arming the rebels would have made a difference has always been a fantasy. This idea that we could provide some light arms or even more sophisticated arms to what was essentially an opposition made up of former doctors, farmers, pharmacists and so forth, and that they were going to be able to battle not only a well-armed state but also a well-armed state backed by Russia, backed by Iran, a battle-hardened Hezbollah, that was never in the cards.” Continue reading →

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