Turkey’s Relations with Russia

February 23, 2016

On November 24, 2015 Turkish fighter jets downed a Russian Su-24 warplane for having violated Turkish airspace and the incident has led to a major setback in bilateral relations as well as regional complications (*). This is not sustainable.

From the 16th to the 20th century, the Ottoman and Russian Empires were in continuous military conflict. During the Cold War Turkey was NATO’s southern flank. It was only after the dissolution of the Soviet Union which marked the end of the Cold War that Turkish-Russian cooperation made remarkable progress in the fields of trade, energy, tourism and contracting services, leading to considerable interdependence. All of this was accomplished within the framework of a meticulously built political understanding which, while admitting differences, put the emphasis on common interests. Continue reading

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Middle East in the Grip of Polarization

February 18, 2016

The Middle East, in the grip of polarization, is going through a most violent period. Syria is being torn apart. Iraq is far from peace and stability. Egypt remains unsettled. Tunisia continues to face a multitude of challenges. According to some Libya is already a failed state. Yemen is being devastated. Dislocation, starvation and disease are widespread. Misery reigns everywhere. Behind their façade of stability and affluence Gulf States are nervous. ISIL’s appetite for crime and destruction seems insatiable. Its outreach is continuing to expand. As for Turkey, these are very stressful times to say the least. Continue reading

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Synopsis: Turkey’s Foreign Relations

February 16, 2016

This is an attempt to describe, as briefly as possible, state of Turkey’s foreign relations.

US-Turkey: Exasperation.
Russia-Turkey: For the optimist the word of choice could be “tension”, for the pessimist “enmity”.
China-Turkey: Apprehension.
NATO-Turkey: Mistrust.
EU-Turkey: One can pick any one of the following for a single word description: annoyance, frustration, grief, irritation, vexation. There is, however, a two-word alternative: “unworthy deals”. Continue reading

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Combatting ISIL Remains a Formidable Task

Co-authored with Yusuf Buluc (*)

February 10, 2016
On February 4, 2016 Brigadier General Ahmed Asseri, an adviser to the Saudi Defense Minister and also spokesman for the Saudi-led Arab coalition in Yemen reportedly stated, during an interview, that the Kingdom was ready to participate in any ground operations that the anti-ISIL coalition may agree to carry out in Syria. He also said that to win against Islamic State, the coalition needed to combine aerial operations with ground operations.

In response to questions about this statement, US Defense Secretary Carter said that increased activity by other countries would make it easier for the United States to accelerate its fight against Islamic State militants. “That kind of news is very welcome,” he told reporters and added that he looked forward to discussing the offer of ground troops with the Saudi Defense Minister. Continue reading

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Geneva III: A Rocky Start

February 3, 2016

The road map for Syrian political transition which the UN Security Council (UNSC) approved through Resolution 2254 envisaged the Syrian government and the opposition engaging in formal negotiations in early January 2016. It also envisaged a nationwide ceasefire, establishing of non-sectarian governance, drafting of a new constitution, free and fair elections within eighteen months. Continue reading

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The Iranian Spring

February 1, 2016

It may not be about freedom of expression, respect for human rights or political reform but this still is an Iranian spring; more than anything else a diplomatic one, in the middle of a harsh regional winter.

On January 24, Xinhua news agency reported the following:
“Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first international leader to head to Iran after the trade restrictions were removed, capped his visit to Tehran with 17 agreements for cooperation in areas including energy, trade, and industry, reported Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency…
“During Xi’s visit, the two countries also agreed to increase bilateral trade more than 10-fold to $600 billion in the next decade as China pursues its One Belt One Road project, an ambitious network of road, rail and port routes that will connect China to Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe…” Continue reading

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Washington’s Troubled Relations with Its Middle East Partners

January 25, 2016

On January 22, 2016 Secretary Kerry addressed the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. This is how he started off his remarks on the Iran nuclear deal:
“… It wasn’t so long ago that … Iran was only months away from having enough weapons-grade uranium to build 10 to 12 bombs. We were on the cusp of confrontation – believe me. I can’t tell you how many leaders, when I traveled through certain areas, said, ‘You have to bomb it. That’s the way you will solve this problem.” He then gave a brief account of what had been achieved through the JCPOA and concluded by saying, “My friends, the region is safer. The world is safer.” Continue reading

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Iran Nuclear Deal: Implementation Day

January 19, 2016

During the weeks preceding “implementation day” for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), world’s attention focused once again on the Iran nuclear deal. Different aspects of the agreement negotiated between Iran and the “P5+1” or “the US and five other nations” were re-examined. Some analysts saw the deal as a landmark development and expressed optimism that it could end three decades of hostility between Tehran and Washington and usher in an era of cooperation in Middle East conflicts. Others appeared more reserved. And, some continued to reject it as a “bad deal”. Two observations can be made with regard to this debate:

Firstly, the “five other nations” referred to are China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and Germany. In other words, Iran’s counterparts at the table were the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, world’s governing body plus Germany, EU’s “primus inter pares”. This in itself is a measure of the achievement which Iranian President Hassan Rouhani described as a “golden page” in his country’s history opening new windows for Iran’s engagement with the world. Continue reading

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Syria Talks Approaching

January 14, 2016

On December 18, 2015 the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2254 approving the road map which had emerged from International Syria Support Group’s (ISSG) two Vienna meetings. A week later, Staffan de Mistura, UN’S Special Envoy for Syria, set the target date of January 25 to start talks in Geneva. And, at the very end of the year, Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi went to Ramadi to celebrate its liberation from ISIL.

Two weeks later, the regional mood is still not one of optimism. Continue reading

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When Better Is the Enemy of Good

January 8, 2016

For a good number of years drafting a new constitution has been on Turkey’s agenda. The 1982 Constitution has been amended numerous times but our political parties still regard it as the legacy of a military coup and wish to write a new one. For some at least, this appears to be a knee-jerk response rather than a reasoned position. The amended Constitution may indeed not be the perfect one, but it has not prevented democratic reform. The following are excerpts from the Presidency Conclusions of EU’s December 16-17, 2004 Brussels summit when Turkey was given a date for the launching of accession negotiations: Continue reading

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