Aleppo’s Continuing Tragedy

Posted on December 19, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

December 19, 2016

The tragedy of Aleppo which has become the symbol of the devastation and the suffering caused by the Syrian conflict appears to have entered a new phase. The agreement reached between Russia and Turkey for the evacuation of rebel fighters and civilians from Aleppo was off to a rocky start characterized by confusion and setbacks. Understandably, this was not going to be smooth process. Because, regime forces regard all rebel fighters as terrorists regardless of their group affiliation and would be extremely reluctant to let them go with their arms to resume fighting elsewhere. If a substantial number of civilians caught in the crossfire can be evacuated in the coming days this would in itself be a major accomplishment. Continue reading →

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The Battle for Aleppo and Beyond

Posted on December 12, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

December 12, 2016

On December 4, 2016 Secretary of State John Kerry addressed the Saban Forum (*). More than anything else he vented pent-up frustration with the Middle East. He was extremely blunt in his criticism of Israel’s settlement policy. And, this is how he described the complexity of the Syrian conflict:

“… There are about six wars in Syria, folks. I mean, you’ve got Saudi Arabia and Iran, you’ve got Israel and Hizballah, you’ve got Turk versus – you’ve got Turk versus Kurd, Kurd versus Kurd, Kurd versus Turk, PKK, you’ve got Sunni-Shia, you’ve got oppositionists against Assad, you’ve got – I mean, it’s just – it’s extraordinarily complicated in the proxyism.

“So you’ve got Turkey with its interests – its own Islamic and other interests – you’ve got the differences between Egypt and Kuwait and the Emirates versus Saudi, Qatari, and Turk…” Continue reading →

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West’s Populist Surge and a Lesson from the Past

Posted on December 2, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

November 2, 2016

“Populist Surge” is now on top of West’s agenda and likely to stay there. Mr. Trump’s election victory surprised the world. As expected, President Hollande announced that he would not seek re-election. On Sunday, Austria will hold presidential elections. Reuters reported that Austria’s Nazi past encroached on the election campaign. Others say that a Freedom Party victory would make Norbert Hofer the first far-right head of state in Western Europe since the demise of Nazi Germany. On Sunday, Italians are also going to the polls for a constitutional referendum. And soon, Turkey may follow.
Years ago, I purchased in a second-hand bookshop, an original copy of Franz von Papen’s book “Memoirs” published in 1952. It was hardcover and in perfect condition. I was delighted. Going through it years later prompted me to write this post. Continue reading →

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BROOKINGS ORDER FROM CHAOS U.S.-Turkey relations under Trump may hinge more on Turkey than on Trump

Posted on December 1, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

 

Authors
Kemal Kirişci
TÜSİAD Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Director – The Turkey Project
Ali Tuygan
Retired Turkish ambassador to Canada, Saudi Arabia, Greece, and UNESCO; Former under-secretary, Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs

 

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Donald Trump’s election as the next U.S. president surprised observers around the world. His campaign rhetoric has left many U.S. allies, in particular, deeply concerned; adversaries, for their part, look forward to the dismantling of many of President Obama’s foreign policy priorities.
For one key ally—Turkey—considerable uncertainty hangs in the air. With U.S.-Turkey relations already on the rocks, this does not bode well. But that’s more because of uncertainties in Turkey than uncertainties with Trump. Continue reading →

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Democracy’s Challenge

Posted on November 28, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

November 28, 2016

All peoples aspire to democracy. Regardless of the level of respect they have for fundamental rights and freedoms all regimes claim to be democratic in some form because it remains the ultimate source of legitimacy to govern.
Notwithstanding its worldwide appeal, democracy as practiced in the West has faced some challenges in recent years. Interventions in the Middle East have not only adversely affected West’s public discourse on promoting democracy but also led to serious questioning of related violations of domestic and international law.
Moreover, the global economic crisis has given rise to strong criticism of the existing economic order on both sides of the Atlantic. Long before, but especially since the collapse of communism, free market economy had become the twin sister of democracy. In other words, failures of the free market also had a negative impact on the perception of democracy. Continue reading →

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Turkey, European Union and NATO

Posted on November 14, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

November 14, 2016

“Turkey’s traditional foreign policy, bitterly criticized by the present Government for having betrayed Turkey’s potential, stood on pillars. Our relations with the United States and the European Union constituted the first two. A third one was our relations with our neighbors and the region. Prominently among those was Russia. Since the world is in a constant process of transformation Turkey was searching for new pillars to add to the existing ones. Relations with China, India and other emerging powers offered new prospects. Continue reading →

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From Arab Spring to Turkish Autumn

Posted on November 7, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

November 7, 2016
The EU summit held in Brussels on December 17, 2004 decided that accession negotiations with Turkey would start on October 3, 2005. The process was accordingly launched at the Luxembourg Intergovernmental Conference. This was two years after the Justice and Development Party (JDP) came to power when “democratic reform” was high on Turkey’s agenda. In early April 2009 President Obama visited Turkey. He addressed the Turkish Parliament and referred to Turkey’s strong, vibrant, secular democracy as Ataturk’s greatest legacy. Regional countries were looking at Turkey with envy. Continue reading →

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The West and the Middle East

Posted on October 31, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

October 31, 2016

Middle East turmoil has led some analysts to look back and speculate on the Sykes-Picot agreement and whether or not current borders would survive.

The very first of President Wilson’s Fourteen Points read: “Open covenants of peace, openly arrived at, after which there shall be no private international understandings of any kind but diplomacy shall proceed always frankly and in the public view.” Continue reading →

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Aleppo and Mosul: A Tale of Two Cities

Posted on October 24, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

October 24, 2016

It was widely reported last week that Syrian opposition fighters backed by Turkish warplanes and artillery dealt a major psychological blow to ISIL by capturing Dabiq which, though a small town of marginal strategic importance in northern Syria, had crucial ideological and propaganda value for ISIL. Again last week, the Iraqi operation to recapture the city of Mosul, called by some the “great battle”, was launched and is receiving wide media coverage.

Major media outlets give different figures regarding the troops involved. One says that the coalition’s 94,000 troops vastly outnumber their opponents. Another refers to about 30,000 pro-government forces taking part in the operation. The number of ISIL fighters in Mosul is generally given as 5,000. Whatever is the exact figure, add to the tens of thousands of troops heading towards Mosul, hundreds of tanks, heavy artillery and coalition aircraft ranging from jet fighters to Apache helicopter gunships, reconnaissance aircraft, heavily armed drones as well as hundreds of American advisers and ISIL will be scoring a great propaganda victory by standing up against the world. Continue reading →

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A Critical Week for the Middle East

Posted on October 17, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

October 17, 2016

It takes an expert to explain the identity, evolution, affiliation and the objectives of the different groups battling in Syria. The history of groups bringing together major international actors involved in the conflict is less complicated but also interesting.

On February 4, 2012 the UN Security Council failed to adopt a draft resolution on Syria as Russia and China vetoed the text which supported the Arab League’s proposed peace plan. It thus became clear that Moscow and Peking were not going to allow the West the freedom of action it enjoyed in Libya. (Russia and China had abstained on UNSC Resolution 1973 of March 17, 2011 on Libya.) Continue reading →

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