March 4, 2024
The anxiety reflected in the major headlines of the past week has confirmed that 2024 is going to be a critical year for the West.
It seems that a growing number of Americans are not happy with the looming Biden-Trump rematch. The latter’s threatening remarks to European allies about their inadequate defense spending have added to worries in European capitals on the future of their relations with Washington.
Continue readingFebruary 26, 2024
On February 17, Chancellor Scholz addressed the Munich Security Conference. Mentioning the tragic death of Alexei Navalny, he declared that to all intents and purposes, President Putin has brought the economy, education, science, and culture in Russia under his control, and anyone who actively works for freedom and democracy has to fear for their life. He said:
Continue readingFebruary 21, 2024
The following are two posts from nearly three years ago. Both draw attention to the usual pattern of regional conflict. Where the war in Gaza might lead remains to be seen.
Continue readingFebruary 19, 2024
On February 16, 2023, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny died at a penal colony above the Arctic Circle, marking a dark day for Russia. A Le Monde article was titled “Navalny’s death buries the last hope for a free Russia”. In 2020, Navalny was poisoned in Siberia by what German laboratories later confirmed to be the nerve agent Novichok. His return to Moscow on January 17, 2021, knowing that he would immediately be detained, was a remarkable display of courage and patriotism. Someday, in Moscow, Russians will pay him their respects before his statue.
Continue readingFebruary 12, 2024
US State Department’s Office of the Historian says that Secretary of State Warren Christopher “eschewed confrontation in favor of negotiation with friend and foe alike”. Indeed, during his tenure as Secretary of State, from January 1993 to January 1997, he paid 200 visits to different countries including those in which he accompanied President Clinton. A hundred of those visits were to the Middle East: 5 to Saudi Arabia, 8 to Jordan, 8 to the Palestinian National Authority, 15 to Egypt, 29 to Syria, and 34 to Israel.
Continue readingFebruary 5, 2024
On January 3, twin blasts near the burial site of Qasem Soleimani, the former head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, killed a hundred people and injured scores in the southern Iranian city of Kerman adding to concerns about a widening regional conflict. President Raisi’s political deputy, Mohammad Jamshidi, blamed Israel and the US for the attack. Later, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei vowed a “harsh response” to the attack but did not mention either Israel or the US.
Continue readingJanuary 29, 2024
Türkiye’s governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power following the general election on November 2, 2002. This marked the end of the coalition government led by Prime Minister Ecevit, the prominent leader of Türkiye’s democratic left. The change of government came at a critical time for Türkiye-US relations because the Bush administration had already declared its intention to invade Iraq. Vice President Cheney had visited Ankara to secure the Turkish government’s “full cooperation” in the project, but Mr. Ecevit had resisted.
Continue readingJanuary 25, 2024
On October 7, 2023, a comment by Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that the conflict, which has continued for 75 years, cannot be resolved by force and can be settled exclusively by political and diplomatic means, by engaging in a full-fledged negotiation process based on the well-known international legal framework stipulating the establishment of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with a capital in East Jerusalem that co-exists with Israel in peace and security.
Continue readingJanuary 22, 2024
On January 18, Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed that Israel under his leadership will not compromise on less than total victory over Hamas, and they will win. “In any arrangement in the foreseeable future — with an arrangement or without one — Israel must have security control over all the territory west of the Jordan,” Mr. Netanyahu also said at a news conference, referring to the area that would supposedly belong to an independent Palestinian state. “This clashes with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do? The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends,” he declared.
Continue readingJanuary 17, 2024
That the US and the UK reacted militarily to Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea was no surprise. What is striking is how after years of war, Yemen, a country going through the world’s worst humanitarian crisis is becoming a party to another regional conflict.
Iran says it does not want to get involved in a wider conflict, but groups in the “Axis of Resistance” including the Houthis are carrying out attacks on Israel and its allies to show solidarity with the Palestinians. And, White House Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby says that the US is not looking for conflict with Iran or looking to escalate. But reportedly, the US now plans to put the Houthis back on its global terrorism list.
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Diplomatic Opinion - Ali Tuygan 