September 21, 2026

In recent weeks, the Houthis, in a lightning offensive, have captured two key islands near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, giving them greater leverage over the critical maritime route. With two major maritime arteries nearly blocked, oil prices have skyrocketed, triggering worldwide anger. Moreover, a key Saudi Arabian pipeline to the Red Sea was shut down after being hit by drones launched from Iraq, creating further risks of disruption. Riyadh airport has been the target of a Houthi missile attack, and the US is unwilling to intervene. In brief, the Iran war is expanding into a broad regional conflict and the cost is rising.

Reportedly, the US war with Iran has cost Washington $45.1 billion so far. Perhaps as part of a balancing act, the Trump administration has approved a potential $24.3 billion sale to Saudi Arabia of 48 F-35 fighter jets and related equipment. Thus, Riyadh will pay the US $506,000,000 for each F-35 fighter.

Despite their wealth and security cooperation with Washington, Gulf states are having an exceptionally difficult time and want the war to end sooner rather than later. Furthermore, relations among Arab states are far from smooth. In a report excerpted from a forthcoming book by its reporters, Haaretz said that UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan had warned Prime Minister Netanyahu that Hamas was planning a major operation days before the October 7 attacks. The report alleges that Netanyahu failed to inform security chiefs.[i] Although Netanyahu strongly denied this, questions remain about his alleged negligence. The report also highlights the security-cooperation dimension of the Abraham Accords.

The Israel-US attack on Iran has, to a good extent, played into the hands of Iran’s hardliners. However, the people of Iran are suffering the multiple negative consequences of the war. Yet, to the IRGC’s satisfaction, the world is focused on the conflict’s financial and diplomatic costs for Washington, its depleted stocks of critical ammunition, Secretary of War Hegseth’s endless frictions with the US military, and the war’s domestic political toll on  President Trump. Nonetheless, former President Hassan Rouhani, reflecting the view of millions, has clearly expressed his desire for a negotiated end to the war.[ii]

President Trump has said he does not think the Iran war will end until after the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, adding that oil prices will not come down before.

So far, both Tehran and Washington have tried to show their domestic audiences and the world that they hold the upper hand in the conflict. However, both know that the current state of affairs is costly and unsustainable. Both should also realize that overplaying one’s hand carries immense risks, perhaps more so for Iran.

President Trump and Vice President Vance would prefer to strike a deal with Iran before the election. Last Tuesday, the US House of Representatives ordered Trump, for the third time, to end the war with Iran, with seven Republicans backing the measure. Moreover, a second round of fighting with Iran may complicate Secretary Rubio’s plans for Cuba’s conquest, as the country experiences nationwide blackouts under the US fuel blockade.

Even more importantly, after two years of turbulence, the outcome of the midterm elections would be followed by a global vote of confidence in the US, although the result will not become public immediately.

Iran’s leaders, on the other hand, may calculate that striking a deal now would yield better terms than waiting until after the midterms since a Republican loss to Democrats might prompt the frustrated US President to seek a military solution, no matter the cost. Thus, although it may seem unlikely given threatening statements from Tehran and Washington, the next four to five weeks may see the resumption of diplomatic talks between the two sides. After all, both sides must know by now how the other defines “progress” in their negotiations.

After six months of war and conflict resolution at an impasse, even the foregoing might be overly optimistic. Nonetheless, one cannot help but long for even a single sign of positivity in today’s chaotic world.

As for Türkiye, with our declining democracy, failed economy and foreign policy, pessimism reigns supreme.

[i] https://www.timesofisrael.com/days-before-oct-7-uae-leader-warned-netanyahu-hamas-was-planning-war-but-pm-did-nothing-with-the-info-report/

[ii] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iran-former-president-proposes-referendum-131114579.html