May 11, 2026
In his election night victory speech on November 6, 2024, President-elect Donald Trump said, “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.” Yet, he twice joined Prime Minister Netanyahu’s war against Iran. And, in his Address to the Nation, on April 1, 2026, one month after the Israeli-US attack on Iran, he said:
“Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks. Our enemies are losing and America, as it has been for five years under my presidency, is winning, and now winning bigger than ever before.”[i]
Today is the 73rd day of the war. Yesterday, Iran sent its response to the latest US peace proposal, a 14-point, one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war. President Trump dismissed it as “totally unacceptable.”
At present, there are two Middle East cease-fires, the first between Iran and the US, and the second between Israel and Lebanon. The first one is defined as “fragile” with skirmishes between Iranian and US forces. The second is non-existent, with Israel razing border villages in southern Lebanon as part of an effort to lay the groundwork for a larger occupation, modeled on tactics used in Gaza, according to Israel’s defense minister Katz.[ii]
Before the Israeli-US attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was open to ships of all nations. Today, more than 1500 ships remain trapped in the Persian Gulf. The consequences of closure have been severe and will last.
Oil and gas prices are surging everywhere, even in the US. And Trump says that America produces more oil and gas than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined; that it imports almost no oil through the Hormuz Strait and won’t be taking any in the future; so those countries that can’t get fuel, many of which refuse to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, can buy oil from the US.
According to the World Trade Organization, fertilizer shortage is becoming a major problem. The World Food Program says the number of people facing acute hunger could reach record levels this year if the destabilizing conflict continues.
The main beneficiaries have been oil companies, some of the biggest banks, and the defense sector.
Transatlantic relations are under stress, and there is no doubt that the Gulf states that have enjoyed peace, stability, and prosperity are in shock.
Trump is banking on the assumption that the blockade of Hormuz, with serious consequences for Iran’s already troubled economy, will force the regime to agree to a “deal”. Yet, A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.[iii]
Trump repeatedly says that the war is not about regime change in Iran. With the Supreme Leader Khamenei and hundreds of other senior Iranian officials killed, it was about regime change. However, the Supreme Leader’s successor son, Mojtaba Khamenei, even in perfect health, could be no match for his father, who remained in power for thirty-seven years. Consequently, the decision-making process in Tehran has become complicated, with somewhat conflicting views between hardliners and those whose priority is giving the people of Iran a better life. This is why, beyond the Iranians being forever negotiators, their response to the US memorandum has taken time.
Whatever their response, Tehran’s top priority in the negotiations remains a “final peace” that removes the possibility of further Israeli-US attacks on Iran.
Its second priority is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of anti-Iran sanctions.
Moreover, it now wishes to impose tolls and passage rules through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has now laid out a set of new rules for vessels seeking to transit the strait, according to a document seen by CNN, pressing ahead with efforts to formalize control over the waterway in defiance of US warnings. Whether this is a real objective or a negotiation tactic remains to be seen.
The regime could be prepared to give up its quest to become a nuclear power, but it will not agree to end its nuclear program for civilian purposes. It will not agree to any restrictions on its missile program. The question of what happens with its enriched uranium will take time and detailed negotiations. Even Trump has said that the nuclear sites obliterated with the B-2 bombers have been hit so hard that it would take months to get near the “nuclear dust”, meaning enriched uranium.
The US parameters for nuclear talks reportedly included a moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment for up to 20 years; the transfer overseas, possibly to the US, of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which could be used to make nuclear warheads; and the dismantling of Iranian nuclear facilities.[iv]
Since Tehran will never agree to send the stockpile to the US, there are two ways to tackle the problem. The first option is sending the stockpile to a third party. Russia has already declared its readiness to take in Iran’s enriched uranium as part of a future peace deal. It is understood that Moscow would then dilute the uranium to lower levels compatible with civilian purposes and return it, or some of it, to Iran. The second option is diluting the stockpile in Iran under strict IAEA supervision. Tehran will never agree to sending it to the US.
Thus, the first question is how long negotiations, in other words, the current war of nerves, will drag on, or whether Israel and the US will attack Iran again, “with the heaviest bombing yet.” This would be Netanyahu’s choice. At this stage, however, a new wave of attacks seems unlikely, as it would result in a much longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The second question is, if carried out as planned, depending on Washington’s reaction to the Iranian response, “What will emerge from Trump’s visit to China, by far the biggest buyer of Iran’s oil?”
Finally, in the coming months, the entire world will remain focused on the November US midterm election, which will determine the final two years of the American Supreme Leader’s second term.
[ii] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/03/world/middleeast/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-destruction.html?smid=em-share
[iii] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/07/cia-intelligence-iran-trump-blockade-missiles/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert
[iv] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/10/iran-us-peace-proposal-pakistan-reported-drone-strikes-strain-ceasefire?CMP=share_btn_url
Diplomatic Opinion - Ali Tuygan 