Dealing with Middle East Violence

Posted on June 29, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

29 June 2015
Four years after the killing of Usame bin Laden, Al Qaida, far from being eradicated, has new footholds in the Middle East. Its offshoot IS now controls swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria, extending its reach to Africa, Asia and displaying an insatiable hunger for violence. Thousands of Muslim recruits have joined its ranks from all over the world. By standing up to the Iraqi regular army, the Shiite militias and the US-led coalition air strikes for more than a year, IS has now gained an aura of invincibility. The result is an upsurge in violence as reflected in the last assault on Kobani and terrorist attacks in France, Tunisia and Kuwait.
The world is worried. Moslem countries should worry more than others because increasingly frequent use of the expression “Islamist/jihadist terror” serves neither their faith nor their interests. Furthermore, it is essentially their people who are bearing the brunt of the suffering. If the present trend is allowed to continue, the cultural divide which separates them from the rest of the world would become impossible to bridge and millions of Muslims living in other countries would become suspect. Continue reading →

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Turkey’s Failed Syria Policy

Posted on June 24, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

24 June 2015
A week ago, US Defense Secretary Ash Carter and General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff testified before the House Armed Services Committee.
According to the Associated Press, the Secretary told the Committee that the U.S. will fall way short of meeting its goal of training 24,000 Iraqi forces to fight Islamic State militants by this autumn since only enough recruits to train about 7,000 — in addition to about 2,000 counterterrorism service personnel – has been received so far.
Carter said that the train-and-equip mission in Syria also lacks enough trainees to fill existing training sites, primarily because it’s difficult to make sure the recruits are people who can be counted on and are not aligned with groups like IS. “It turns out to be very hard to identify people who meet both of those criteria…” Carter said. Continue reading →

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Middle East’s Vicious Circle

Posted on June 19, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

19 June 2015

The following is a key paragraph from “The Modern History of Iraq” by Phebe Marr:
“Without substantial international support and lacking in understanding of Iraq or clear planning for Iraq’s future, the decision by the United States to occupy Iraq was fraught with dangers. Toppling Saddam proved easy and swift, but replacing the government and the political and social institutions that underpinned the regime was a long, difficult, and costly process – for both the United States and Iraq. The initial attack, followed by unchecked looting and the ill-advised dismantling of the political and military structures, created widespread destruction and a political and social vacuum, which foreign personnel proved unable to replace. Iraq soon began to fracture into ethnic and sectarian components.”(*)

Continue reading →

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Turkey’s Elections and Foreign Policy

Posted on June 15, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

15 June 2015
On 7 June Turkey held parliamentary elections. Result: The ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) lost its parliamentary majority of twelve years. This was largely attributed to hubris, excessive government spending on luxury, allegations of corruption, growing income disparities and President Erdogan’s relentless campaign for a custom made presidential system. We dispute none of that. And, we believe that JDP’s disastrous foreign policy has also played a part.

Normally and perhaps universally, foreign policy as a factor that shapes electorate choice comes way down the list. But once foreign policy is identified as impacting negatively on national security and prosperity then its prominence gets vastly upgraded. Foreign policy pundits would examine and try to gauge what role JDP foreign policy failures have played in its significant loss of electorate favor on 7 June elections. We believe that JDP’s foreign policy both for its substance and the way it was executed has engendered lessened security and concomitant waste of national resources. This is so not just in the perception of the public; today Turkey is measurably much less secure owing to JDP’s dismal foreign policy record. We have sketched out below the salient negatives of that policy. Continue reading →

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US and Russia Need to Cooperate (2)

Posted on June 11, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

11 June 2015

Every time they meet, Secretary Kerry and Minister Lavrov raise hopes of cooperation between Washington and Moscow on international issues; they refer to their countries’ ability to “make a difference”, “make things happen”. This was again what they said in Sochi on 12 May 2015. What has followed inspires little optimism.

It may be worth remembering in this connection what Minister Lavrov said at the end of his introductory remarks during the joint press conference in Sochi:
“…Our president firmly emphasized that we are ready for as broad cooperation as possible and as close interaction as possible with the U.S.A. based on equal rights and mutual respect of interests and positions of each other…” Continue reading →

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Time to Put Arab Boots on the Ground

Posted on June 7, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

7 June 2015

On 17 December 2010 a Tunisian, Mohammed Bouazizi, set himself on fire in an act of protest. This was followed in many Arab countries by widespread demonstrations calling for democracy, respect for human rights, a better life and more equitable sharing of national wealth. All that the world sees after nearly five years of Arab Spring is internal strife, war, displacement of people and suffering.

Underlying the current state of affairs are ideological differences, power struggles, tribal and regional conflicts of interest and above all sectarian divisions. But whatever the reason, Arab Spring’s constant feature is Arabs fighting Arabs in endless fratricide. This has created great opportunities for terrorist organizations such as Daesh, al Qaida and al Nusra to entrench themselves across the region and in the case of Daesh claim large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria. In the face of such disaster Arab countries remain as divided as ever thereby rendering the concept of “the Arab nation”, once referred to with well-deserved pride and later aspired to with hope, a total myth. Continue reading →

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Ukraine: Learning to Live With a Frozen Conflict…

Posted on June 3, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

3 June 2015

On 12 May 2015 Secretary Kerry had eight hours of talks with President Putin and Minister Lavrov in Sochi.

During the joint press conference held after the meetings Mr. Lavrov stated that the state of bilateral relations was also discussed, including specific irritators that have been in place recently. “But” he said, “we fully understand that it is absolutely necessary to avoid any steps that could further detriment relations between Russia and U.S. We believe that it is necessary to continue the cooperation between our countries, especially given the fact that resolution of many international problems really depends on our joint efforts – on the joint efforts of Russia and the U.S. – and I believe this is one of the main ideas about today’s negotiations, one of the main conclusions and outcomes of today.”

Mr. Kerry referred to the removal of Syria’s chemical weapons as an example of US-Russian cooperation. He said that it was the confidence in the two countries’ ability to be able to make a difference on some important issues that brought them together in Sochi. Continue reading →

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US and Russia Need to Cooperate

Posted on May 31, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

31 May 2015

During his first visit to Moscow on 6-8 July 2009 President Obama tried to “reset” relations. Unfortunately for the international community this failed to materialize. Russians probably preferred to wait and see. The Arab Spring led to a new set of confrontations. Snowden affair became an irritant and lead to the cancellation by Washington of an Obama-Putin summit that was to take place during the G-20 meeting in St. Petersburg on 5-6 September 2013. Yet their brief encounter there led to the 14 September 2013 agreement on the elimination of Syrian chemical weapons only to be followed by the crisis in Ukraine.
Since the Syria chemical weapons deal which was indeed an achievement, both Secretary Kerry and Minister Lavrov have repeatedly said that the resolution of many international problems depend on their countries’ joint efforts, that together the US and Russia can make a difference, make things happen. I share their judgment. Yet, the US and Russia have hardly made concrete progress on anything since the Syria chemical weapons deal. Conflict over Ukraine has become a major stumbling block. They need to break the impasse. Continue reading →

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Yemen’s Sectarian Divide

Posted on May 27, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

27 May 2015

Saudi-led airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthis started on 26 March. On 14 April the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2216 giving Saudi Arabia what may be called a diplomatic victory.
The Resolution urged all Yemeni parties to respond positively to the call by President Hadi of Yemen to attend a conference in Riyadh under the auspices of the Gulf Cooperation Council, to support the political transition in Yemen and the UN-brokered negotiations. The President had been forced by the Houthis to flee Aden and seek refuge in Saudi Arabia just before the launching of airstrikes. Continue reading →

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Syria: Only More Trouble Ahead

Posted on May 25, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

25 May 2015

With Daesh controlling half of Syrian territory and the “Army of Conquest” consolidating its gains in the Idlib province and getting closer to regime’s bastion of Latakia, the Assad regime appears to be on the retreat. While some observers see these as serious setbacks for Damascus others draw attention to the ebb and flow pattern of the war. Equally important are the divisions emerging between the US and its regional allies. The “Army of Conquest” is a coalition of groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra Front, Ahrar al-Sham and a few others. Continue reading →

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