The Riyadh-Tehran Rupture

Posted on January 5, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

January 5, 2016

A year ago, some Middle East analysts referred to Saudi Arabia’s new leadership as a cadre of youthful, dynamic royals and technocrats. They said that Saudi Arabia is uniquely positioned to rise above the fray of the past decade and begin bridging the considerable gaps dividing the main Sunni nations. They thought that the changes appeared to deepen Saudi Arabia’s links with the United States and make it a more reliable security partner. A year later, the Saudi-led coalition is still battling Yemen’s Houthis with no end in sight. It has recently announced that it will no longer observe the ceasefire agreed last December. More importantly, Riyadh has cut diplomatic relations with Iran. Surely, the setting ablaze of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran constituted a flagrant violation of international law but there will be consequences. Continue reading →

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2015 in Retrospect

Posted on December 28, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

December 28, 2015

Arab Spring turmoil has continued to dominate world’s agenda with the war in Syria, ISIL terrorism and the refugee problem as top items. The confrontation over Ukraine has somewhat receded confirming predictions of a frozen conflict. The only good news in 2015 were the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The rising cost of its involvement in Syria aside, this puts Tehran on top of the very short list of winners in 2015. Continue reading →

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UN Security Council Resolutions 2253 and 2254

Posted on December 21, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

December 21, 2015

On December 17, 2015 the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2253 (*) to suppress the financing of terrorism. The 28-page resolution covers asset freeze, travel ban, arms embargo and listing criteria for ISIL, Al-Qaida and “associated individuals, groups, undertaking and entities”. Through the Resolution, the Security Council reiterated the obligation of States to ensure that their nationals and persons in their territory deny economic resources to those actors, including direct and indirect trade in oil and refined oil products, modular refineries and related material. It reaffirmed that those responsible for committing, organizing or supporting terrorist acts must be held accountable.

And, on December 18, the Security Council adopted, again unanimously, Resolution 2254 (**) approving the roadmap which had emerged from International Syria Support Group’s (ISSG) Vienna meetings of October 30 and November 14. Continue reading →

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Downing of Russian Su-24: The NATO Dimension

Posted on December 16, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

Co-authored with Yusuf Buluç (*)

December 16, 2015

Downing of Russia’s Su-24 bomber on November 24, 2015 has led to tensions between Ankara and Moscow putting decades-long cooperation in danger.

Before the incident, a Russian military delegation headed by Major General Dronov, Deputy Commander of the Russian Air Forces visited Ankara on 15 October 2015. According to the statement issued by Turkey’s General Staff, the purpose of the visit was to clarify the reasons underlying the violations of Turkish airspace on 3-4 October and the measures taken to prevent their recurrence. Apparently, the Russian side also apologized and that was the end of it. Why the two sides did not conclude a “de-confliction agreement”, like Russia and the US had done, remains an open question. Yes, Russian and American military aircraft are engaged in combat operations over Syria and Turkey is not, but more could and should have been done. Continue reading →

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Turkey Needs to Build Trust

Posted on December 14, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

December 14, 2015
In a world of contradictions foreign policy is no exception. The West, for example, always takes care to wave the democracy flag but can become oblivious to democratic values in its dealings with Middle East tyrannies. Russia constantly underlines that it is up to the people of Syria to determine their own future but becomes less generous when the question becomes the people of Ukraine determining their future. Nevertheless, they all somehow try to make their contradictions less conspicuous; devise ways and means to justify them; draw attention to what is doable and what is not and thus bridge the gap between words and deeds. Turkey understandably cannot be the exception to the rule. But discrepancies between what it says from one day to the next and between what it says and does are turning Ankara into an “unpredictable partner” at best. Continue reading →

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Moment of Truth for Turkey’s Syria Policy

Posted on December 3, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

December 3, 2015

On November 27, 2015 the Wall Street Journal reported that the Obama administration was pressing Turkey to deploy thousands of additional troops along its border with Syria to cordon off a 60-mile stretch of frontier that U.S. officials said was being used by the Islamic State fighters in and out of the war zone. This coincided with Turkish press reports that convoys of heavy weaponry were heading towards the south.

On November 30 President Putin held a press conference in Paris at the end of the UN Conference on Climate Change. He was extremely critical of Turkey: Continue reading →

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EU-Turkey Brussels Summit: “The Deal”

Posted on December 2, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

December 2, 2015

The EU summit held in Brussels on December 17, 2004 decided that accession negotiations with Turkey would start on October 3, 2005. The process was accordingly launched at the Luxembourg Intergovernmental Conference. This was two years after the Justice and Development Party (JDP) had come to power and “democratic reform” appeared to be high on the agenda. In early April 2009 President Obama visited Turkey. He addressed the Turkish Parliament and referred to Turkey’s strong, vibrant, secular democracy as Ataturk’s greatest legacy.

Turkey’s accession to the EU would have been a landmark development for the world for two reasons. Firstly, it would have shown that a determined Moslem country could achieve the highest democratic standards. And secondly, it would have proven that the EU could embrace a Moslem country which had attained those standards. The project, however, required genuine political will from both sides. Unfortunately, that kind of will was never there. Continue reading →

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Downing of Russia’s SU-24 Warplane

Posted on November 27, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

November 27, 2015

“Syria: Only More Trouble Ahead” was the title of a piece I wrote in early May. In a region characterized by abundance of gloom and scarcity of hope that much was easy to predict. I would readily admit, however, that the likelihood of a military incident between Turkey and Russia did not even cross my mind. Yes, Russia was supporting the regime, Turkish government the opposition and Ankara remained obsessed with Assad but Turkish-Russian relations seemed to be on track. All of a sudden the picture has changed. Because, what happened on November 24 was not an “accident” but an “incident”. President Putin is now venting anger over the shooting down of the Russian SU-24 warplane and the loss of a pilot. Moreover, he is directing far-reaching accusations against the Turkish government for having links to the Islamic State (ISIL). In response, Turkish leadership is saying that more than enough warnings had been issued for airspace violations. And, they are rejecting ISIL related accusations as slander. This much is clear: Turkey and Russia will stick to their diametrically opposite views on the incident. Continue reading →

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Fighting ISIL on the Battlefield and Beyond

Posted on November 23, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

November 23, 2015

Following the terrorist attacks in Paris President Hollande declared that France was at war. President Obama called the attacks “an attack on the civilized world”. In a telegram to his French counterpart, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the attacks were “the latest testimonial to the barbaric essence of terrorism which throws down a challenge to human civilization”. Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “This attack on liberty targets not only Paris, it targets all of us and it has hit all of us, and that is why we will also all respond together.”

Despite such expressions of solidarity, the question “how to conduct this war?” remains because this is not just about just fighting the Islamic State (ISIL) in Iraq and Syria. It is also about finding ways and means to discredit its ideology; diminishing its appeal; narrowing its base; creating platforms if not alliances between the West, Russia and Moslem countries. This is a huge task, now further complicated by problems of homeland security and the Syrian refugees. Continue reading →

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A Roadmap to End the Syria Conflict

Posted on November 16, 2015 by Ali Tuygan

November 16, 2015

On September 28, hours after having delivered clashing remarks, Presidents Obama and Putin met on the sidelines of the 70th United Nations General Assembly. Three days later, on September 30, Russia started airstrikes in Syria. A month later, on October 30, China, Egypt, the EU, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United Nations, and the United States met in Vienna and issued a communiqué on the Syria conflict. The same day, the White House announced that President Obama had ordered fewer than fifty Special Operations troops into Syria to advise local forces fighting the Islamic State (ISIL). The next day, on October 31, Russian airliner Metrojet’s Airbus flying from Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg crashed over Sinai with 224 people on board. And finally on November 13, ISIL struck Paris claiming more than a hundred victims and leaving hundreds wounded.

The foregoing is a six-week summary of major developments related to the Syria conflict. Continue reading →

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