Brexit

Posted on June 27, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

June 27, 2016
For some time, Grexit was mentioned as a possibility and that was troubling enough. Then came Brexit, dealing an unexpected blow to the EU and leading to understandable worries regarding the consequences for UK’s unity, the global economy, European security, NATO, West’s relations with Russia and China and even Washington’s pivot to Asia. This, however, was first and foremost a historic choice by the British people on their country’s future. And, the referendum campaign reflected a tradition of maturity and civility with the exception of the tragic death of Labor MP Jo Cox. This should be yet another lesson for all those Middle Eastern peoples engaged in medieval sectarian wars and for their leaders who are determined not to embrace democratic values and the rule of law. Continue reading →

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“Dissent Channel Memo” on Syria

Posted on June 22, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

June 22, 2016

Fifty-one State Department officials have signed a “dissent channel memo” calling for a “more militarily assertive U.S. role in Syria”.

The availability of a “dissent channel” constitutes solid proof of respect for different opinions and their free expression in a government agency and is only to be envied. Secretary Kerry’s having a meeting with representatives of the group is also remarkable. In a department dealing with foreign affairs this all the more important because it ensures that policy decisions are adopted having taken full account of the collective wisdom of its members. Needless to say, once committed, foreign policy mistakes can be extremely costly and difficult to correct; a case in point being Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian conflict. Continue reading →

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Orlando: A Collage of Views on the Background

Posted on June 20, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

June 20, 2016

Phrases like “radical Islam”, “jihadist terror”, “Islamic extremism” and “Islamophobia” have been with us for quite some time. The Orlando massacre must have galvanized the behind closed doors debate on them. And, while some use them openly and with fury, others find it wiser to avoid doing this.

Mr. Trump, suggesting that all Muslim immigrants posed potential threats to America’s security, has renewed his call for a ban on Muslim migration into the United States and extend it to cover all nations with a history of terrorism. Mrs. Clinton said that a ban on Muslims would not have stopped the attack and neither would a wall. She also said that she’s not afraid to say “radical” Islam as she countered attacks from Mr. Trump that she’s too politically correct to use the phrase.

Although we are less than five months away from the November 8, 2016 US presidential election, I prefer to focus on what President Obama has said following the Orlando massacre. Here are excerpts from his statements: Continue reading →

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France Launches “Middle East Peace Initiative”

Posted on June 9, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

June 9, 2016

Israeli-Palestinian talks sponsored by the US collapsed in April 2014. On July 8, Israel launched “Operation Protective Edge” in Gaza in response to rocket attacks by Hamas. 2,143 Palestinians and 71 Israelis lost their lives with 11,000 wounded. There was great devastation. Almost 100,000 people were left homeless. Israeli authorities and UN officials could not agree on the number of civilian casualties in Gaza. Following the declaration of a ceasefire on August 26, Hamas declared victory and PM Netanyahu stated that Israel had achieved her objectives. The understanding was that talks on substantive issues would start in a month in Cairo. They did and got nowhere. A new wave of Palestinian violence started, this time in the form of stabbings. Yesterday, four Israelis were killed and three injured in a central Tel Aviv shooting terror attack. In response Israel sent more troops to the West Bank and froze 83,000 permits for Palestinians to enter Israel. These had been issued as a goodwill gesture to allow greater freedom of movement for Palestinians during Ramadan. Continue reading →

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Turkey’s Unsustainable “Precious Loneliness”

Posted on June 6, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

June 6, 2016

On May 24, 2016, Turkey’s new Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım introduced his government’s program in the Parliament. Government programs hardly get any public attention because they routinely reiterate lofty principals, announce visionary policies and contain endless promises. This is Turkey’s 65th government. Had commitments by successive governments been fulfilled, Turkey would have been in the 22nd century today. Continue reading →

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The Long War Against ISIL

Posted on May 30, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

May 30, 2016

In March, 2013, Free Syrian Army troops and Islamist rebel forces, including al-Nusra captured Raqqa. Soon, however, members and flags of the Islamic State appeared. By early 2014, ISIL had taken complete control of the town. Since then Raqqa has remained ISIL’s stronghold in Syria, capital of the so-called caliphate.

Fallujah lies 57 kilometers (35 miles) west of Baghdad. ISIL captured Fallujah at the beginning of January 2014. Following are passages from Washington Post’s January 3, 2014 account of what had happened:
“A rejuvenated al-Qaeda-affiliated force asserted control over the western Iraqi city of Fallujah on Friday, raising its flag over government buildings and declaring an Islamic state in one of the most crucial areas that U.S. troops fought to pacify before withdrawing from Iraq two years ago…
“… The upheaval also affirmed the soaring capabilities of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the rebranded version of the al-Qaeda in Iraq organization that was formed a decade ago to confront U.S. troops and expanded into Syria last year while escalating its activities in Iraq. Roughly a third of the 4,486 U.S. troops killed in Iraq died in Anbar trying to defeat al-Qaeda in Iraq, nearly 100 of them in the November 2004 battle for control of Fallujah, the site of America’s bloodiest confrontation since the Vietnam War…”

A few days later ISIL captured Ramadi. In June 2014 Mosul and Tikrit were seized. (Tikrit was retaken in March 2015 and Ramadi in January 2016.) Continue reading →

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US, Russia and Their Regional Allies

Posted on May 19, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

May 19, 2016
International Syria Support Group (ISSG) met in Vienna on 17 May 2016. In keeping with the tradition, the Group issued a statement (*) and the Co-Chairs and UN Envoy Staffan di Mistura made remarks to the press (**). What made this last press conference particularly interesting were the explicit references to conflicts of interest within the Group, almost contradicting the words of unity and harmony used in the Statement. Indeed, it had always been more than obvious that the Group remained divided on the future of President Assad, the designation of terrorist organizations and the support allegedly given to some of these by ISSG members. However, on earlier occasions these differences were not spelled out with such clarity. Continue reading →

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Turkey’s Distorted Priorities

Posted on May 16, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

May 16, 2016

Turkey must have become world’s number one country for its failure to properly determine national priorities. We have witnessed a series of terrorist acts causing great loss of life. Widescale military operations are continuing against the PKK with rising casualty figures. We have three million unhappy Syrian refugees. The future of the “refugee/visa deal” in which the government has invested a huge amount of political capital looks uncertain. Thanks to our grand strategy to redesign the Middle East, ISIL and al-Nusra are now our neighbors. Turkish foreign policy has lost direction. Our economy is facing serious problems some of which are directly related to foreign policy mistakes. We are facing internal and external security challenges. A state of lawlessness is gripping the country. And, last but not least, we are dangerously polarized reflecting a deeper national identity problem. Continue reading →

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Time to Boost Syria’s Political Transition

Posted on May 9, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

May 9, 2016

“Cessation of Hostilities in Syria”, worked out between Russia and the US and approved by the UNSC through Resolution 2268, entered into force on February 27, 2016. For two months, despite violations, it seemed to hold inspiring cautious optimism. However, two major challenges remained.

The first was the launching of not just talks but “meaningful talks” between the regime and the opposition. On March 21, Reuters reported that U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura described Syria’s political transition as “the mother of all issues” in response to regime’s representative Bashar Ja’afari who said that Assad’s future had “nothing to do” with the negotiations.

The second was how to deal with terrorist organizations not only as a short-term battlefield issue but also a long-term problem for Syria and beyond. Under the terms of the “Cessation of Hostilities in Syria”, Russia and the US were expected to delineate, with other members of the ISSG’s Ceasefire Task Force, the territory held by “Daesh, Jabhat al-Nusra” and other terrorist organizations designated by the UN Security Council” which were excluded from the cessation of hostilities. It was obvious that in view of conflicting interests this would be easier said than done. Continue reading →

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The Obama Legacy: A View from the Middle East

Posted on May 2, 2016 by Ali Tuygan

May 2, 2016

It was a few months before the 2008 US Presidential election. I was talking to my American colleague at UNESCO. I said to her that since American presidents’ decisions have global implications, democratic countries should also have the opportunity vote in those elections within a reasonable quota to be shared among them. She responded, “an interesting idea…”. We both laughed. It was a joke but the premise was not entirely without logic.

Now that we are only months away from the end of President Obama’s second term in office, pundits have started to express opinions regarding his legacy. I feel that without voices from the Middle East the portrayal President Obama’s legacy would be incomplete. Continue reading →

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