Counting and Recounting …

Posted on April 7, 2019 by Ali Tuygan

April 7, 2019

On March 31 Turkey had municipal elections. The result was a yellow card for the government. However, the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) immediately asked for recounts in Ankara and İstanbul where, according to initial figures, they lost the mayoralties after more than two decades. Is asking for recounts within the law? Yes, it is. But then government started saying that elected mayors who don’t command the majority in municipal councils, İstanbul being a case in point, would have a hard time governing. Thus, what should be a technical process has now turned into a political controversy whereby the government challenges more than the ballot box and that is pushing it too far. Turkey desperately needs to put this episode behind and turn to its heavily-loaded agenda. Continue reading →

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Turkey’s Municipal Elections: A Yellow Card for the Government

Posted on April 1, 2019 by Ali Tuygan

Co-authored with Yusuf Buluc (*)

April 1, 2019

The significance of an election in a democratically governed country is determined by the context and the framework in which it is held, as well the political backdrop. If these parameters were to be applied to the municipal elections held yesterday in Turkey, in effect to determine choices for local administrations, the exercise takes on deeper and critical political character. Given where we are in our journey of modern and republican statehood close to a century, this election, as confirmed by the intensity with which the political parties have conducted their respective campaigns, brought us to a juncture with a sign boldly printed as “last exit for democracy”. Continue reading →

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Discord over the Golan Heights

Posted on March 26, 2019 by Ali Tuygan

March 26, 2019

Yesterday was a day of jubilation at the Trump White House, perhaps more than the Inauguration Day. Perhaps, it will be remembered as the beginning of Mr. Trump’s campaign for the 2020 presidential election. Because, the investigation led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence that Mr. Trump or any of his aides were involved in Russian government’s 2016 election interference. The conclusion of the probe is likely to lead to many foreign and security policy questions, first and foremost, the future of US relations with Russia.

And, who could possibly be the lucky foreign leader to be there on the spot to share Mr. Trump’s joy other than Prime Minister Netanyahu who cut his Washington visit short because a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip, reportedly by mistake, injured seven civilians in north-east of Tel Aviv on Monday morning. The image of a leader returning home immediately to take the helm might help his election campaign, who knows. Continue reading →

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The Christchurch Tragedy

Posted on March 21, 2019 by Ali Tuygan

March 21, 2019

The Christchurch massacre was a horrendous crime. It was a ghastly, dastardly act of terrorism. The innocent people who died there ranged in age from 3 to 71. The enormity of the crime shocked the people of New Zealand and Muslims around the world. It shocked the world. It was a tragedy and its handling a huge challenge for the government of New Zealand. Continue reading →

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Turkey’s “More Than Municipal” Election

Posted on March 18, 2019 by Ali Tuygan

March 18, 2019

At the end of March Turkey will hold municipal elections. However, the ongoing campaign is not about our failed city planning, repairing broken sidewalks and potholed streets.

For the JDP this is an exercise to further consolidate its power. It is running its campaign on a nationalistic platform claiming that the election is about Turkey’s survival. The JDP has won every single election since 2002 and the prospect of losing the popular vote and/or the mayorships of major cities has now become its worst nightmare. President Erdoğan is crisscrossing the country from one end to the other leading his Party’s campaign. This is a novelty of our new “presidential system” approved in the April 2017 constitutional referendum with a very slim margin (51.41 % – 48.59%). In that referendum the JDP lost in all major cities. The Party, as before, relies heavily on religious themes. Its rhetoric is at times threatening and almost always polarizing. Continue reading →

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From Downing of Russian Military Aircraft to the Purchase of Russian S-400s

Posted on March 11, 2019 by Ali Tuygan

March 11, 2019

At the beginning of the Syrian conflict Russia and Turkey were on diametrically opposite sides. Russia was supporting the regime, the Turkish government the opposition. Nonetheless, Turkish-Russian relations remained on track.

On November 24, 2015 a stunning development changed the picture. Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 military plane for having violated Turkish airspace for 17 seconds.  This was no “accident”. It was a tragic “incident”. Continue reading →

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The Hanoi Summit

Posted on March 2, 2019 by Ali Tuygan

March 2, 2019

The three paragraphs below were among the conclusions I had drawn from the first Trump-Kim summit held in Singapore on June 12, 2018 (*):

  • The Singapore summit marks the relaunching, under more favorable circumstances and with a lot of theater, of decades of diplomatic negotiations with Pyongyang on denuclearization. However, the DPRK is now an established nuclear power. Thus, there is a long road ahead and a US president with little patience.
  • One may conclude therefore that in the negotiations soon to be launched, the Trump White House would insist on rapid denuclearization and Kim Jong Un on the need to normalize relations and at least a gradual lifting of sanctions.
  • It seems that under Mr. Trump conventional diplomacy will give way to one-to-one deal-making with no mention of agreements, treaties and multilateralism.

Continue reading →

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Confronting Terrorism and Islamic State’s Ideology

Posted on February 26, 2019 by Ali Tuygan

February 26, 2019

The following is among the permanent fixtures of UN Security Council resolutions on terrorism:

“Emphasizing that terrorism and violent extremism conducive to terrorism cannot and should not be associated with any religion, nationality, or civilization…”

The reality is different and reflects a multitude of contradictions. Continue reading →

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IS Fighters’ Homecoming: Price for the Regime Change Project in Syria

Posted on February 22, 2019 by Ali Tuygan

February 22, 2019

The war in Syria appears to be coming to an end and the return of ISIS fighters and families to their countries is becoming a major issue.

The UK is unwilling to agree to the return of Shamima Begum, an unrepentant ISIS wife. And the US State Department has said that Hoda Muthana, another ISIS wife “is not a U.S. citizen and will not be admitted into the United States. She does not have any legal basis, no valid U.S. passport, no right to a passport, nor any visa to travel to the United States.”

Turkish daily Hürriyet reported today that the US has asked Turkey to undertake the protection of ISIS children. What that means is not clear, but it probably involves a US financial contribution to meet their needs, provide for their education, etc. It is more than likely that soon will come another proposal for the settlement of ISIS families in Turkey. After all Washington must think, a Turkish foreign minister had once referred to them as “angry kids”. Continue reading →

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ISIS Fighters Going Home

Posted on February 19, 2019 by Ali Tuygan

February 19, 2019

The war in Syria appears to be coming to an end. During the past eight years it was migration which led to internal political challenges for European governments and to divisions within the EU. Now it is ISIS wives and fighters returning home. The prospect has preoccupied Western security services and think tanks for long, but it was Shamima Begum who triggered the public discussion. Since the UK has no diplomatic or consular personnel in Syria security minister Ben Wallace said he would not put officials’ lives at risk to rescue UK citizens who went to Syria and Iraq to join Islamic State, adding “actions have consequences”. Many in the UK are said to oppose the return of ISIS fighters. Others believe the UK cannot refuse the return of UK citizens. Continue reading →

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