January 26, 2026

The US-Israel-led Western project to remake the Middle East started with the invasion of Iraq and continued with the regime change project in  Libya, followed by Syria. In December 2024, the HTS seized the capital Damascus unopposed after a lightning advance that sent President Assad to Russia after a 13-year civil war and six decades of family rule.

Ankara warmly welcomed the HTS takeover of power in Syria.

As could be expected, regime change was followed by clashes between Syrian security forces and loyalists of President al-Assad, and the revenge killings.

On March 10, 2025, an agreement was signed between President al-Sharaa and Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the Kurdish-led, US-Israel-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).  Although called an “agreement”, the short text signed in Damascus lacked detail and specifics regarding its implementation, and as such, it was a “declaration of intent”.

Notably, it allowed the SDF to share the mantle of the Syrian state without much change on the ground. Considering the huge challenges facing the people of Syria, the agreement was seen as a step forward. However, gradually became clear that this was only half a step and had to be followed up with more.

On January 6, 2026, under the auspices of the US, senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris, where they decided to establish a joint fusion mechanism—a dedicated communication cell—to facilitate immediate and ongoing coordination on their intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under the supervision of the United States. Their trilateral statement ended with the following: “This joint statement reflects the spirit of today’s great meeting and the Sides’ determination to turn a new page in their relations for the benefit of future generations.”[i]

Twelve days later, on January 18, 2026, following months of inconclusive negotiations and a sudden military operation into the Kurdish-held territory, the Syrian government and the SDF agreed to a cease-fire and to integrate the group into the national forces.

According to the Syrian Arab News Agency, the ceasefire essentially covers the following:

•          An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts and contact lines between the Syrian Government forces and the SDF, along with the withdrawal of all SDF military formations to the east of the Euphrates River as a preliminary step for redeployment.

•          The full and immediate administrative and military handover of Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa governorates to the Syrian Government.

•          Integration of all civilian institutions in the northeastern al-Hasakah Governorate into the institutions of the Syrian state and its administrative structures.

•          The issuing of a presidential decree appointing a nominee to assume the position of Governor of al-Hasakah, as a guarantee of political participation and local representation.

•          The Syrian Government is taking control of all border crossings, oil fields, and gas fields in the region, with protection provided by regular forces to ensure the return of resources to the Syrian state, while considering the special case of Kurdish areas.

•          The full integration of all SDF military and security personnel into the structures of the Syrian Ministries of Defense and Interior, granting them military ranks, financial entitlements, and logistical requirements accordingly.

•            The integration of prisons and camps with detained ISIS fighters and families under the authority of the Syrian government. 

•          The adoption of a list of candidates submitted by the SDF leadership to hold high-ranking military, security, and civil positions within the central state structure to ensure national partnership.

•          The welcoming of the Presidential Decree No. 13 of 2026, which provides for the recognition of Kurdish cultural and linguistic rights.

•          A commitment by the SDF to remove all non-Syrian PKK leaders from Syria.

•          A commitment by the Syrian government to continue the fight against terrorism (ISIS) as an active member of the International Coalition, in coordination with the United States, to ensure the security and stability of the region.

•          A commitment by the Syrian state to continue fighting against terrorism (ISIS) as an active member of the International Coalition, in coordination with the US, to ensure the security and stability of the region.[ii]

Following the ceasefire, the US Ambassador in Ankara and Special Envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack tweeted, “… the rationale for the US-SDF partnership: the original purpose of the SDF as the primary anti-ISIS force on the ground has largely expired, as Damascus is now both willing and positioned to take over security responsibilities, including control of ISIS detention facilities and camps.”[iii]

In a statement, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that the new period in Syria, which began on 8 December 2024, represents an exceptional opportunity for the country to achieve a prosperous future and has now entered a critical phase.[iv] The pro-government media in Türkiye started celebrating. For the  DEM Party, this was a big disappointment.

However, the Turkish government should remain mindful that Trump’s favors always come with a price.

In a must-read statement titled “Preventing Further Escalation in Syria’s North East”, the International Crisis Group says that the January 18 agreement is the best current prospect for stabilizing Syria’s northeast, and both sides can gain from it, provided that they act with calm and avert escalation.[v]

To sum up, the US, Israel, and Türkiye all cooperated in the ouster of the Assad regime. However, that was the end of cooperation between the latter two, given Ankara’s anti-Israel rhetoric over Gaza. What brought them together was their desire for regime change in Syria. Once that was accomplished, their paths diverged.

Since the fall of the Assad regime, Israeli forces have moved to control a 400-square-kilometer demilitarized buffer zone within Syrian territory. Türkiye also maintains a military presence in northern Syria. At some stage, al-Shaara is more than likely to ask for the withdrawal of both the Israeli and  Turkish military from the country.  Last Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Washington is considering a complete withdrawal of American troops from Syria, citing US officials. Is this a message to Israel and Türkiye? Perhaps.

What makes Syria a particular challenge for Ankara is that, while developments in Syria can be narrowly defined as a security issue from Israel’s perspective, for Türkiye, they also have internal political implications, as witnessed by the escalatory internal rhetoric prompted by the recent agreement between Damascus and the SDF.

The ceasefire between the Syrian government and SDF, which expired last Saturday night, has now been extended by fifteen days to facilitate the transfer of the ISIS prisoners to Iraq.

A final word: President Macron has warned leaders in Davos of “a shift towards a world without rules.” Yet, he has also sent a message to Trump inviting him to Paris for dinner and said that they are “in line on Syria” and can “do great things on Iran”.

Perhaps Macon needs to focus on the chaos in transatlantic relations and admit that the era of Middle East mandates is over and that external interventions and meddling have brought nothing but misery to the region.

[i] https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/01/joint-statement-on-the-trilateral-meeting-between-the-governments-of-the-united-states-of-america-the-state-of-israel-and-the-syrian-arab-republic

[ii]https://sana.sy/en/syria/2291194/

[iii] https://x.com/USAMBTurkiye

[iv] https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-9_-suriye-de-aciklanan-ateskes-ve-tam-entegrasyon-anlasmasi-hk.en.mfa

[v] https://www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-east-north-africa/syria/preventing-further-escalation-syrias-north-east?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email