October 20, 2025
It has been a week since the Middle East’s Trump Day. With expected accusations of violations, the ceasefire is not an irreversible fact yet, and questions about the following phases and the long-term future remain. Still, the Gaza ceasefire is a positive development. As for the Sharm el-Sheikh summit, this was probably a frustrating experience for most attendees. Many of those leaders who shook hands with President Trump and then stood behind him to listen to his remarks for half an hour might have regretted being there, even if they received personal compliments. And Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s sycophantic comments about Mr. Trump’s leadership could have annoyed many in Pakistan.
Moreover, the absence of the UAE’s President, Sheik Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was notable.
Mr. Trump, holding out a “prize” to those who behaved, said:
“And we’re gonna put some of you on the Board of Peace. Everybody wants to be on the Board of Peace. They said, would you be the chairman? I say I’m pretty busy too, but whatever we can do to have peace in the Middle East, it’s worth it. But everybody wants to go on the Board of Peace. So we’re probably going to enlarge it. We’re gonna get, and the leaders, the top people, the top leaders, they want to be on the Board of Peace.”[i] (emphasis added)
Article 9 of President Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza says that the enclave will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, to be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by President Trump, with other members and heads of State to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair. This body will set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until the Palestinian Authority (PA) has completed its reform program and can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza.
Indeed, the PA needs to be reformed under new and energized leadership. It is high time for Mahmoud Abbas to make an honorable exit. This is particularly important if Hamas is to be replaced in Gaza by a new Palestinian leadership that would appeal not only to the majority of the Palestinians but also to the global audience.
Prominently absent among the prisoners freed by Israel on October 13 was 66-year-old Marwan Barghouti. Interestingly, according to The Times of Israel, World Jewish Congress President Ronald Lauder offered to travel to Sharm el-Sheikh to make the case for including him on the list of 250 prisoners serving life sentences in Israeli jails who were to be released.
In his first interview since the war in Gaza began in October, former Shin Bet chief Ami Ayalon had also called for the release of all the hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, including Marwan Barghouti, whom he sees as the only one who can lead the Palestinians after the war ends.
Mr. Barghouti, the former West Bank Secretary-General of the Palestinian, secular, nationalist Fatah party headed by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, was sentenced in 2004 to five life sentences for helping plan terror attacks during the Second Intifada that killed five people in Israel. He has denied the charges against him.[ii]
An advocate of a two-state solution even as he backed armed resistance to occupation, he is viewed as a unifying figure across Palestinian society, and a possible successor to Mahmoud Abbas, the aging and unpopular head of the Palestinian Authority, the body that governs the Palestinian-controlled parts of the West Bank. Some Palestinians view him as their own Nelson Mandela, the South African anti-apartheid activist who became his country’s first Black president.[iii] [iv]
It seems that Egypt and Qatar appealed to the US to intervene and advise Israel to release Mr. Barghouti, but failed. An Arab official speculated that Mr. Netanyahu’s refusal to release him was due to both domestic political concerns and concerns over the prisoner’s popularity as a Palestinian political figure.
Last week, Mr. Barghouti was beaten unconscious by Israeli prison guards on 14 September, his family said. The far-right Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who is in charge of the prison service, denied that he had been assaulted, but said he was “proud” Barghouti’s prison conditions had worsened.[v]
All of this makes the search for a new Palestinian leader an urgent issue.
Mr. Barghouti is referred to as a popular and secular leader. However, Prime Minister Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners may find a secular Palestinian leader undesirable since this may appeal to many on the “Board of Peace”. If Mr. Barghouti is to remain behind bars, the Palestinians should find themselves another leader, but preferably a secular one.
As for Türkiye, two challenges require a balancing act:
The first challenge is Ankara’s relations with Hamas.
Türkiye’s, Egypt’s, and Qatar’s role in securing the Gaza ceasefire has generally been described in the Western media in the following terms: “using leverage with Hamas to force it to accept”, “Hamas coming under pressure from Egypt, Qatar, and Türkiye”, and “pressuring Hamas not to provoke”.
Last Friday, German Foreign Minister Wadephul, in a statement prior to his departure for Ankara, said:
“Through its mediator role in the Middle East conflict, Turkey helped bring about the historic ceasefire for Gaza. As one of the supporters of the peace plan – and as a country which we expect to continue exerting pressure on Hamas – Turkey has a responsible role to play.” [vi]
However, President Erdoğan has more than once said that he does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization, but as a group of mujahedeen fighting for their country. He has even referred to them as “Kuvayı Milliye”, a conventional expression for the Turkish revolutionaries during our War of Independence.
This must be why Thomas Friedman advised Mr. Trump the following, in a recent New York Times article:
“And to Qatar, Turkey and Egypt and whichever Arab countries are ready to send troops into Gaza, Trump needs to say something similar: ‘Are you going to force Hamas to disarm and pave the way for the return of Palestinian Authority leadership to Gaza or play footsie with Hamas as it tries to reassert control there?’ ”[vii]
The second challenge is the future of Turkish-Israeli relations.
Over the past two years, Ankara has been only second to Tehran in its criticism of Mr. Netanyahu’s Gaza policy. However, the Trump Declaration signed by the leaders of Egypt, Qatar, and Türkiye refers to a “friendly and mutually beneficial relationship between Israel and its regional neighbors”.[viii] Had Mr. Netanyahu completely surprised all the leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh by attending the summit at the last minute, the Peacemaker King could have insisted on handshakes among all those present to crown his accomplishment before shifting focus to the Russia-Ukraine war. Clearly, Ankara will remain on alert to avert such an eventuality.
Beyond these, Türkiye’s biggest problem is having ranked 117th among 142 countries in the World Justice Project’s “Rule of Law Index 2024”. According to the same index, among the 15 countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Türkiye ranked 15th after Georgia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Moldova, Kazakhstan, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Albania, Serbia, Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of Belarus, and the Russian Federation.[ix]
According to the World Bank, the Rule of Law Index measures the strength of the rule of law in various countries, assessing factors such as the effectiveness of the judiciary and the level of corruption.
On October 28, a day before Türkiye celebrates its national “Republic Day,” the World Justice Project (WJP) will release the 2025 WJP Rule of Law Index. Perhaps the WJP could kindly consider postponing its publication until October 30 so that we can enjoy the 102nd anniversary of the declaration of our Republic under Atatürk’s leadership.
[i] https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-israel-gaza-peace-event-egypt-october-13-2025/
[ii] https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-jewish-community-leader-lobbied-for-prominent-palestinian-prisoner-barghoutis-release/
[iii] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/13/palestinian-prisoners-gaza-ceasefire-israel/
[iv] https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/marwan-barghouti/?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=20416016111&gbraid=0AAAAApT7f_e-KtnbHuf_glqEnPAZcGQhA&gclid=CjwKCAjwr8LHBhBKEiwAy47uUpWrqYti1CXcm4ndwff-DyVIJUiClldjA3IYEg31irVV0v0tSrHh3xoC9iwQAvD_BwE
[v] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpwvr2xpkz0o
[vi] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/laenderinformationen/tuerkei-node/2739854-2739854
[vii] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/opinion/trump-israel-gaza-peace.html?campaign_id=225&emc=edit_nttf_20251014&instance_id=164430&nl=thomas-friedman®i_id=60473709&segment_id=207902&user_id=6e50439e867e4155600e5ebabac2aa22
[viii] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/10/the-trump-declaration-for-enduring-peace-and-prosperity/?utm_source=wh_social_share_button
[ix] https://worldjusticeproject.org/rule-of-law-index/global
Diplomatic Opinion - Ali Tuygan 