September 20, 2024

At least 37 people were killed and thousands more injured, many seriously, when pagers and walkie-talkies, used by Hezbollah, exploded across Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in the operation. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant complimented the Israeli Intelligence Agency, the Mossad, for “great achievements”, but stopped short of claiming responsibility for the two days of attacks in Lebanon. However, American and other countries’ officials have reportedly said that Israel was responsible for the explosions.

Where the pagers were manufactured and how they were shipped to Lebanon remains a puzzle. With some exaggeration, knowing Mossad’s capabilities, one would not be surprised if it becomes clear eventually that Hezbollah’s order for the pagers was placed in a sham company and they were produced in Israel. The explosions were not only aimed at the destruction of Hezbollah’s communication systems but also another warning to the group once again that they are no match for the IDF.

Following the explosions, Yoav Gallant also said Israel was shifting its military focus towards the front with Hezbollah, adding that the goal was to return displaced northern residents to their homes because the Israeli government has been faced with growing frustration from the tens of thousands of displaced Israelis unable to return home. “I have said it before, we will return the citizens of the north to their homes in security and that’s exactly what we are going to do,” Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a video statement. On Thursday, IDF launched a wave of strikes on Hezbollah targets as Israeli warplanes flew over Beirut.

In the meantime, demolitions of homes and other civilian infrastructure in the West Bank this year have reached the highest rate in nearly two decades, exceeding the total number in 2023, according to an analysis of demolition and displacement data published by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in the occupied Palestinian territory (OCHA oPT).[i]

The two days of explosions were a huge embarrassment for Hezbollah and its principal supporter Iran. The question, therefore, is how Hezbollah would react and if further escalation would trigger an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah called the two days of deadly blasts linked to electronic devices in Lebanon an “act of war” by Israel. Certainly, Hezbollah would somehow respond to the explosions, but it is unlikely that its response would go that far. Moreover, such a war between Israel and Lebanon would also go against Tehran’s broader interests which prioritize a war of attrition over a wider Middle East conflict.

In 1967, the Six-Day Arab–Israeli War was fought between Israel and a coalition of Arab states, primarily Egypt, Syria, and Jordan from 5 to 10 June.

The 1973 Arab–Israeli War, also known as the Yom Kippur War, was fought from 6 to 25 October between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria. It lasted three weeks.

In two weeks, it will be a year since the Hamas onslaught of October 7, 2023. In other words, the Gaza war has been Israel’s longest war since 1948, but with no Arab country involved. And, unfortunately, it is likely to continue at varying levels of intensity causing loss of life and suffering. Moreover, four Arab countries have signed the Abraham Accords with Israel, with Washington remaining fully engaged to add Saudi Arabia to the list. Iraq and Syria are no longer their former selves. Israel’s principal regional enemy and next target for a similar future is Iran. Tehran knows this and the limits of its war of attrition against Israel. For months, the so-called “US pressure on Israel for a ceasefire” led nowhere. Secretary Blinken’s visits to the region proved distractions. On the contrary, Mr. Netanyahu guided Washington’s response to developments in Gaza. And in three months, a new American president will be at the White House.

In brief, there seems to be very little at present to prevent Prime Minister Netanyahu from going ahead with his plans in Gaza, on the border with Lebanon, and if need be, against the Houthis except for the domestic calls for a ceasefire and the return of the hostages. Thus, he hopes to strike the two-state solution off the international agenda for good and make history. The UN General Assembly resolution passed on Wednesday 124–14, with 43 abstentions, said that Israel should end its presence in “the Occupied Palestinian Territory” within twelve months. It is a political statement of no practical significance.

Toward the end of the month, Mr. Netanyahu is expected to address the U.N. General Assembly. Regardless of who would be present in the General Assembly hall, the world would watch his remarks with more attention than any other leader, expecting to hear his vision of the future. But, they might be disappointed because he would likely focus on justifying Israel’s continuing response to the Hamas attack of October 7.

Last week, Secretary Blinken was in Egypt for the meetings of the US-Egypt Strategic Dialogue. Before the meetings, he and Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdelatty addressed the media. Mr. Abdelatty said, “… as the President announced in the morning, it’s a strategic relationship, and we care about it and we are convinced that you care about it.  We have to work more and more in order to further enhance our cooperation in everything.  The United States is a superpower, and Egypt is a super-regional power, so communications, consultations between us mostly on bilateral relations is of great importance to Egypt and to the United States.” And Mr. Blinken heaped words of praise on the strategic partnership between the two countries.

Three weeks ago, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi made the first presidential visit to Turkey in 12 years. Relations between Ankara and Cairo had soured in 2013 after the then commander-in-chief Sisi ousted President Mohamed Mursi, who and his Muslim Brotherhood were strongly supported by Türkiye’s AKP government. So, one may use a popular expression in Turkish politics to define bizarre turns and twists to describe the evolution of Türkiye’s relationship with Egypt also: “From where to where…”

One wonders what was said by the Egyptian and Turkish presidents on the war in Gaza during their talks in Ankara and what Cairo told Israel about its assessment of the visit. After all, following the meetings of the US-Egypt Strategic Dialogue Secretary Blinken said, “Egypt continues to be an indispensable partner in pursuing a ceasefire in Gaza – one that brings the hostages home, that relieves the suffering of the people of Gaza and creates the foundation for an enduring peace.”[ii] And Türkiye remains the world’s most outspoken critic of the Israeli government.

[i] https://www.ochaopt.org/data/demolition?utm_source=PassBlue+List&utm_campaign=c269187557-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2024_09_18_11_43&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-c269187557-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D

[ii] https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-egyptian-foreign-minister-badr-abdelatty-at-a-joint-press-availability/