July 3, 2023

Last week’s developments in Russia have been described as a “rebellion”, “uprising”, “coup”, and “mutiny”. The exception was China.

Neither President Xi Jinping nor senior officials of the Chinese government said a word about what was happening in Russia. Only the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson published in writing on June 25 her response to a question under the title “Wagner Group Incident”. She said, “This is Russia’s internal affair. As Russia’s friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.”  “Response to a question” in writing is the minimum governments say in public diplomacy.

No matter what one calls the recent developments in Russia, Washington appears more than delighted. On June 28, Secretary Blinken, in a conversation with the Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass, referring to mercenaries of Putin’s own making moving on Moscow said:

“That, in a way, encapsulates the extent to which this aggression against Ukraine has been a failure across the board for Putin.  And we see it by virtually every metric.  Russia is worse off economically.  It’s worse off militarily.  Its standing in the world has plummeted.  It’s managed to wean Europe off of Russian energy in the space of a little over a year.  It’s managed to help NATO become stronger, more united, and bigger.”

As the developments started to unfold, Washington’s European allies were more reserved in their public statements about the developments.

In a written statement on June 24, the Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs of France said that, in conjunction with the French Embassy in Moscow, it is closely following the events underway in Russia and is fully mobilized to ensure the safety of the French nationals present in the country, as well as that of diplomatic and consular staff. Nonetheless, the reference to the “safety of French nationals” showed that for Paris this was a serious development.

On the same day, President Biden spoke today with President Macron, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The leaders discussed the situation in Russia.  They also affirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine according to the White House.

On June 26, UK’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly gave an oral statement to the House of Commons on the situation in Russia. On the question of Ukraine, the UK is closer to Washington than any other of Washington’s major European allies. Thus, Mr. Cleverly quoted Prigozhin’s denunciations of the Russian military leaders and said:

“Mr Speaker, the Government of course considers this an internal Russian affair, and of course the leadership of Russia is a matter exclusively for the Russian people.

“But everybody should note that one of Putin’s protegés had publicly destroyed his case for the war in Ukraine…

“The Russian government’s lies have been exposed by one of President Putin’s own henchmen.

“Now the full story of this weekend’s events and their long-term effects will take some time to become clear. And it is not helpful to speculate.

“But Prigozhin’s rebellion is an unprecedented challenge to President Putin’s authority and it is clear that cracks are emerging in the Russian support for the war.”

Two days later, in an interview, Chancellor Scholz, referring to President Putin, said: “I do believe he is weakened as this shows that the autocratic power structures have cracks in them and he is not as firmly in the saddle as he always asserts.” But he did not want to join in speculation about how long Putin might remain in office, saying the West’s aim in supporting Ukraine was to help it defend itself, not to bring about regime change.

In shows of some support at least, the leaders of Türkiye, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and President of the State of Palestine Mahmoud Abbas called the Russian President “at their own initiative”.

The last one to call was Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi. According to the Kremlin readout of the call, “In connection with the events of June 24, Narendra Modi expressed understanding and support of the resolute actions by the Russian leadership to protect law and order and ensure stability in the country and security of its people… Narendra Modi told Vladimir Putin about his international contacts, including his recent visit to Washington… The conversation was substantive and constructive. The leaders confirmed their mutual desire to strengthen the Russia-India specially privileged strategic partnership and planned future contacts.”

Last Thursday, only two weeks before the NATO summit in Vilnius, EU leaders had an exchange of views with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg. They debated the repercussions of the aborted mutiny in Russia. In a statement issued on June 29, they said that The European Union will continue to provide strong financial, economic, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic support to Ukraine and its people for as long as it takes. They again voice strong criticism against Russia.

The European Council acknowledged Ukraine’s commitment and substantial efforts to meet the required conditions in its EU accession process. It encouraged Ukraine to continue on its path of reforms. Using similar language, it also acknowledged the Republic of Moldova’s commitment and substantial efforts to meet the required conditions in its EU accession process. As for Georgia, it said that the EU will continue to work closely with Georgia to support it in meeting the required conditions to advance on its European path.

On China, the European Council said that despite their different political and economic systems, the European Union and China have a shared interest in pursuing constructive and stable relations, anchored in respect for the rules-based international order, balanced engagement, and reciprocity.

Using Washington’s language, it expressed concern about growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and stated its opposition to any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion. Moreover, referring to China’s responsibility in upholding the rules-based international order, the United Nations Charter, and international law, it called on China to press Russia to stop its war of aggression, and immediately, completely, and unconditionally withdraw its troops from Ukraine. European leaders know very well that any reference to the so-called “rules-based international order” is a non-starter for Beijing but would please Washington.

Thus, NATO’s Vilnius summit is likely to prove a meeting of significance because:

• Russian armed forces’ failure to reach their military objectives in Ukraine, Western sanctions, and Western military support to Ukraine turning the invasion into a grinding war with no end in sight have weakened both President Putin and Russia.
• The confusion created by Yevgeny Prigozhin has further damaged Mr. Putin’s international and domestic standing. This means a period of further uncertainty not only for Russia but for Western countries as well.
• Considering the nature of the Russia-Belarus relationship and the recent deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko’s “working out a solution to end the crisis” does not sound convincing. It is likely that Mr. Lukashenko simply did what was asked of him, providing an indirect line of communication with Prigozhin. The latter’s going to Belarus would not be the end of the Wagner story.
• Since the invasion, Washington and its European partners have steadily increased the quantity and the quality of their military assistance to Kyiv, lastly opening the way for the supply of F-16s. So, “What next?” could be a question.
• It was reported last week, that confronted with a worrying shortage of artillery ammunition and increasingly desperate appeals from Kyiv for more weaponry, the Biden administration is facing an imminent decision over whether to supply Ukraine with controversial cluster bombs. But although Russia, Ukraine, and the US are united in not having signed it, and although cluster bombs have reportedly been used by both sides in the war in Ukraine, the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) of 2008 is an international treaty that prohibits all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster bombs.[i]
• The majority of NATO members are party to the Convention. The non-signatories other than the US are Estonia, Finland, Greece, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Türkiye. In brief, securing broad NATO support for providing Ukraine with cluster bombs may prove a delicate issue.
• Regardless, the war in Ukraine is still an unwinnable war for both sides despite opinions in the West that Ukraine can and should win this war. Consequently, striking a balance between further isolating President Putin and avoiding alienating the people of Russia is becoming an even more difficult task for the West.
• Last Saturday, it was reported that during a secret visit to Ukraine by CIA Director William J. Burns earlier this month, Ukrainian officials revealed an ambitious strategy to retake Russian-occupied territory and open cease-fire negotiations with Moscow by the end of the year. Especially after the Wagner mutiny, however, this appears to be an overly optimistic scenario.
• The Ukraine Recovery Conference held in London on 21-22 June could also be seen as a signal that some kind of peace talks in the not-too-distant future, but the Wagner mutiny coming only two days later, unfortunately, has again dashed such hopes.
• What kind of long-term security assurances/guarantees would be offered to Ukraine would thus be a top item at the Vilnius summit. After all, in their Bucharest Summit Declaration of April 3, 2008, allied leaders had said:

“NATO’s door will remain open to European democracies willing and able to assume the responsibilities and obligations of membership, in accordance with Article 10 of the Washington Treaty.  We reiterate that decisions on enlargement are for NATO itself to make… NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO.  We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO…” And now, there is also Moldova.

• However, Washington and its European allies may not be exactly on the same page on the path ahead.
• The US and its NATO allies have spared no effort in recent months to convince Türkiye to approve Sweden’s membership in NATO. That seemed rather unlikely to happen and now, barring a miracle, with the recent burning of the Quran in Stockholm, there is zero chance of President Erdoğan changing his position. “After all,” he might say, “what is the hurry when everyone seems to agree that Russia is so weakened?”

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[i] https://www.clusterconvention.org/