June 21, 2023

The title of one of my recent posts was, “A Light Breeze of Change in the Middle East”. Hopefully, it would continue to blow more and more strongly and turn into a “wind of change” after decades and decades of conflict, external intervention, and self-destruction.

A brief look at the past developments:

In December 2022, the first China-Arab States and China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summits were held in Riyadh. President Xi Jinping attended both summits.

On March 10, 2023, the “Joint Trilateral Statement by the People’s Republic of China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Islamic Republic of Iran” was issued in Beijing. The Joint Statement announced that an agreement has been reached between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which includes the resumption of diplomatic relations, and the re-opening of their embassies within two months. 

In April, Qatar and Bahrain decided to resume their diplomatic ties. The move came three years after the Arab boycott of Qatar was lifted. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt had done so largely in response to Doha’s support for Islamist movements and its warm relations with Iran. Last Monday the UAE and Qatar also restored diplomatic relations and reopened their embassies. These were only to-be-expected developments.

In May, President Assad attended the Arab League’s 32nd summit in Saudi Arabia for the first time since his country’s suspension following the eruption of war in Syria in 2011. This too was no surprise.

On June 6, Iran officially reopened its embassy in Riyadh. This was a significant sign of progress in regional relations.

In other developments, Iran is about to join the China–Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Saudi Arabia has also decided to join the SCO as a dialogue partner.

Some of these developments were widely interpreted as Beijing’s growing regional influence.

On June 7, the US and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) held a ministerial meeting in Riyadh. They issued a Joint Statement on regional issues and the war in Ukraine.[i]

During his stay in Riyadh Secretary Blinken met many of his regional counterparts. The State Department issued numerous statements regarding his meetings and joint press availabilities. To a large extent, these sought to strike a positive note. Nonetheless, what was said in the Joint Statement and his remarks to the media with Saudi Foreign Minister Al Saud confirmed the well-known differences on a range of issues. Below are some takeaways from these documents.

During his remarks to the press with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Secretary Blinken said, “The United States and Saudi Arabia, together with the GCC, are also focused on Iran’s destabilizing influence in the region, including its support for terrorism and violent militia groups, the seizure of tankers transiting international waters, and nuclear escalation.  The United States continues to believe that diplomacy, backed by economic pressure, by deterrence, and by strong defense cooperation, is the best way to avoid counter these dangerous actions.  We support efforts by Saudi Arabia to de-escalate tension and stabilize relations.”[ii] This last sentence no doubt meant that Washington, though not happy with the resumption of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran, has to live with it.

The GCC-US Joint Statement, while mentioning “aggressive and illegal actions at sea or elsewhere that might threaten the shipping lanes, international trade, and oil installations in the GCC states” did not refer to Iran’s “destabilizing influence in the region, including its support for terrorism and violent militia groups”.

It was clear during remarks to the press that the two sides disagreed on the normalization of relations with the Assad regime. On June 14, it was reported that the Pentagon deployed advanced F-22 fighter jets to the Middle East in a bid to deter Russian military pilots’ increasing harassment of American forces in Syria. But the next day, the US State Department announced $920 million in additional U.S. humanitarian assistance for Syria at the Brussels VII Conference on “Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region.” [iii]

Secretary Blinken must have emphasized the importance of normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations during his talks with Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud as he did during the press conference. But this is what his counterpart said: “Normalization… is in the interest of the region, it would bring significant benefits to all.  But without finding a pathway to peace for the Palestinian people, without addressing that challenge, any normalization will have limited benefits.  And therefore, I think we should continue to focus on finding a pathway towards a two-state solution, on finding a pathway towards giving the Palestinians dignity and justice.  And I think the U.S. has a similar view, that it’s important to continue those efforts.” And the GCC-US Joint Statement also mentioned the two-state solution.

Interestingly, on June 14, President Xi Jinping held talks in Beijing with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas who was on a state visit to China. The two heads of state announced the establishment of a strategic partnership between China and Palestine. This is what the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on the issue of Palestine following the talks:

“Xi Jinping put forward a three-point proposal. First, the fundamental solution of the Palestine question lies in the establishment of an independent state of Palestine that enjoys full sovereignty on the basis of the 1967 borders and with east Jerusalem as its capital. Second, Palestine’s economic and livelihood needs should be met, and the international community needs to step up development assistance and humanitarian aid to Palestine. Third, it is important to keep to the right direction of peace talks. The historical status quo of the holy sites in Jerusalem should be respected, and excessive and provocative words and actions should be avoided. A large-scale, more authoritative and more influential international peace conference should be convened so as to create conditions for the resumption of peace talks and contribute tangible efforts to help Palestine and Israel live in peace. China stands ready to play a positive role in helping Palestine achieve internal reconciliation and promoting peace talks.”[iv]

Like the Chinese proposals on ending the war in Ukraine, this is not a peace plan. It is a roadmap with zero chance to be followed at present but it would appeal to the Arab people, nonetheless.

It seems that during the GCC+US Foreign Ministers’ meetings and bilateral Saudi-US talks many other political, and economic issues, and Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program were also taken up.  Saudi Foreign Minister said that his country would very much prefer to be able to have the US as one of the bidders for that program adding that others are also bidding, and obviously, they would like to build the Saudi program with the best technology in the world.

In early April, Saudi Arabia, and other major oil producers (OPEC+) announced surprise cuts totaling up to 1.15 million barrels per day from May until the end of the year, a move that could raise prices worldwide. This must also have been taken up in the talks with no change in the Saudi position.

On relations with Beijing, Foreign Minister al-Saud could not be clearer. During the joint press availability, he said:

“China is the world’s second-largest economy.  China is our largest trading partner.  So naturally, there is a lot of interaction and intersection with China.  China is an important partner for the kingdom and most countries in the region, and I think that partnership has given us and China significant benefits.  And that cooperation is likely to grow just because of China’s economic impact in the region and beyond is likely to grow as its economy continues to grow.

“But we still have a robust security partnership with the U.S.  That security partnership is refreshed on an almost daily basis.  We have military exercises that are almost constantly going on, so we have cooperation, intelligence-sharing, et cetera, as we see in the effort in Sudan, as we see in what we’re doing together in Yemen.  The partnership with the U.S. remains robust and strong, especially in those areas.

“So I don’t ascribe to this zero-sum game.  I think we are all capable of having multiple partnerships and multiple engagements, and the U.S. does the same in many instances.  So I am not caught up in this really negative view of this…”

Perhaps the most interesting press release from the US State Department about Secretary Blinken’s visit to Riyadh was his interview with Hiba Nasr of Asharq News. [v] This is an Arabic-language television channel and news portal with a focus on regional and global economics. It is a subsidiary of SRMG, the Saudi Research and Media Group. The interview surely reflects what the Saudi officials did not say publicly but preferred to message through the media. It is worth looking at.

Last week Secretary Blinken was in China. He was the first secretary of state to travel to China in five years and the most senior US official to make such a mission since President Joe Biden took office in early 2021. This reminds me of the visit by US President Ronald Reagan to Moscow at the end of May 1988 where he met with General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev and declared that the Cold War with the Soviet Union had ended.  This was the first visit to the Soviet capital by a US president in sixteen years.

The state of China-US relations and their global implications call for regular bi-annual meetings between foreign ministers and annual meetings between the presidents. After all, as Secretary Blinken said, “… we have an obligation, both China and the United States, to manage the relationship responsibly”. Indeed, they owe this to the world. But whether his words rhyme with President Biden’s recent reference to President Xi as a “dictator”, probably in preparation for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit, is a question.

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[i] https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-following-the-ministerial-meeting-of-the-united-states-and-the-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc/

[ii] https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-saudi-foreign-minister-prince-faisal-bin-farhan-al-saud-at-a-joint-press-availability/

[iii] https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-announces-920-million-in-additional-humanitarian-assistance-for-syria/

[iv] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202306/t20230618_11099414.html

[v] https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-hiba-nasr-of-asharq-news/